The School of Odds
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Houston Rockets v Oklahoma City Thunder

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 00:41 UTC

Final: Houston Rockets 116–89 Oklahoma City Thunder

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Rockets (Local)

Prediction 43.56%2.30fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.882%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.89%43.68%43.59%44.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.162.182.2548.78%46.19%45.87%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oklahoma City Thunder (Visit)

Prediction 56.44%1.77fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -2.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.27%56.32%56.41%57.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.691.7462.50%59.44%59.17%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Houston Rockets (Local): 43.56%; Oklahoma City Thunder (Visit): 56.44%. For Oklahoma City Thunder (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -1.80%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.98%E -0.882%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.62%E -2.73%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-16 00:30
Caesars🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -3.29%E -1.48%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.62%E -2.73%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-15 23:33
ReBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -3.29%E -1.48%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -5.75%E -3.44%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-15 23:55
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.16%E -1.89%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.06%E -2.39%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-16 00:35
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.16%E -1.89%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.18%E -3.09%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 00:35
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.03%E -2.31%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.06%E -2.39%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 22:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.03%E -2.31%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.06%E -2.39%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 22:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.03%E -2.31%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.06%E -2.39%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 22:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.03%E -2.31%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.06%E -2.39%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 22:20
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.03%E -2.31%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.06%E -2.39%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 22:20
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.03%E -2.31%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.06%E -2.39%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 22:20
Bally Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.03%E -2.31%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.06%E -2.39%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 22:25
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -5.03%E -2.31%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.62%E -2.73%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 00:25
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -5.03%E -2.31%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -6.31%E -3.80%K -9.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-16 00:35
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.80%E -1.03%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-16 00:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.80%E -1.03%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-16 00:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.06%E -2.39%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 00:35
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.62%E -2.73%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-16 00:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -6.31%E -3.80%K -9.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-16 00:25
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -6.31%E -3.80%K -9.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-16 00:25
picklebet_au🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.88%E -4.17%K -10.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-16 00:30
MyBookie.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.88%E -4.17%K -10.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-16 00:35
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -9.70%E -6.06%K -16.17%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-15 23:35
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -10.70%E -5.22%K -10.19%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.01%EV -9.14%E -5.67%K -14.98%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-16 00:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.36%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.64%1.5%2026-10-16 00:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.36%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.64%1.5%2026-10-16 00:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.36%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.64%1.5%2026-10-16 00:35