Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Golden State Warriors v Sacramento Kings

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 00:41 UTC

Final: Golden State Warriors 111–106 Sacramento Kings

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Golden State Warriors (Local)

Prediction 67.80%1.47fair odd

EV -3.72%

Edge -2.62%

Kelly -8.85%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.44%68.02%67.87%70.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.381.371.4275.19%72.65%72.99%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sacramento Kings (Visit)

Prediction 32.20%3.11fair odd

EV +4.63%

Edge +1.43%

Kelly +2.06%

Growth +0.095%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.04%31.98%32.13%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.853.023.003.2535.09%33.15%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Golden State Warriors (Local): 67.80%; Sacramento Kings (Visit): 32.20%. For Sacramento Kings (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -9.82%E -7.38%K -29.76%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +4.63%E +1.43%K +2.06%G +0.095%	6.0%	2026-10-10 22:55
Caesars🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -7.11%E -5.19%K -19.21%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV +1.42%E +0.449%K +0.658%G +0.009%	4.7%	2026-10-10 23:00
Bovada🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -5.07%E -3.62%K -12.68%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -0.194%E -0.063%K -0.093%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-11 00:14
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -7.11%E -5.19%K -19.21%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -0.194%E -0.063%K -0.093%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-11 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.79%E -5.72%K -21.63%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -0.194%E -0.063%K -0.093%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-11 00:25
Unibet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.79%E -5.72%K -21.63%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -0.194%E -0.063%K -0.093%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-11 00:25
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.79%E -5.72%K -21.63%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -0.194%E -0.063%K -0.093%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-11 00:25
TABtouch🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.79%E -5.72%K -21.63%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -0.194%E -0.063%K -0.093%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-11 00:25
betPARX🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.79%E -5.72%K -21.63%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -0.194%E -0.063%K -0.093%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-11 00:25
Bally Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.79%E -5.72%K -21.63%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -0.194%E -0.063%K -0.093%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-11 00:25
BetUS🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 68.09%EV -3.72%E -2.62%K -8.85%G +0.000%	3.03I 33.00%NM 31.91%EV -2.45%E -0.808%K -1.21%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-10-10 22:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.72%E -2.62%K -8.85%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.41%E -1.14%K -1.71%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-10 22:55
DraftKings🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.40%E -3.12%K -10.72%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -3.41%E -1.14%K -1.71%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-10-11 00:14
ReBet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.07%E -3.62%K -12.68%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.41%E -1.14%K -1.71%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-11 00:35
Betr (AU)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -7.11%E -5.19%K -19.21%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -5.02%E -1.70%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-11 00:20
Bet Right🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -7.11%E -5.19%K -19.21%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -5.02%E -1.70%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-11 00:20
FanDuel🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -4.40%E -3.12%K -10.72%G +0.000%	2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV -5.35%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-11 00:40
Pinnacle🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.52%EV -5.07%E -3.62%K -12.68%G +0.000%	2.91I 34.36%NM 32.48%EV -6.31%E -2.17%K -3.30%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-11 00:39
SportsBet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.07%E -3.62%K -12.68%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.63%E -2.29%K -3.49%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-11 00:40
theScore Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.07%E -3.62%K -12.68%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.63%E -2.29%K -3.49%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-11 00:30
Fliff🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.40%EV -9.14%E -6.82%K -26.89%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -6.63%E -2.29%K -3.49%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-10-11 00:35
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 67.86%EV -8.46%E -6.27%K -24.18%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -8.24%E -2.89%K -4.46%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-10-11 00:34
Betsson🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.02%EV -9.14%E -6.82%K -26.89%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.98%EV -8.24%E -2.89%K -4.46%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-10-10 23:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%	1.4%	2026-10-11 00:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%	1.4%	2026-10-11 00:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%	1.4%	2026-10-11 00:40