The School of Odds
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Golden State Warriors v Portland Trail Blazers

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 02:10 UTC

Final: Golden State Warriors 128–118 Portland Trail Blazers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Golden State Warriors (Local)

Prediction 47.42%2.11fair odd
EV -0.410%
Edge -0.195%
Kelly -0.373%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.74%47.33%47.59%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.012.022.1052.08%49.65%49.50%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Portland Trail Blazers (Visit)

Prediction 52.58%1.90fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.900%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%52.67%52.41%55.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.791.791.8758.82%55.97%55.87%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Golden State Warriors (Local): 47.42%; Portland Trail Blazers (Visit): 52.58%. For Golden State Warriors (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -0.410%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -0.410%E -0.195%K -0.373%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -10.62%E -6.25%K -15.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 01:20
ReBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -2.31%E -1.12%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -6.94%E -3.92%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 01:45
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.78%E -1.36%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -8.52%E -4.89%K -11.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 01:50
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -3.26%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -5.89%E -3.29%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 02:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -3.26%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -5.89%E -3.29%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 01:45
TABtouch🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -3.26%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -5.89%E -3.29%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 01:45
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -3.26%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -5.89%E -3.29%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 01:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -3.26%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -5.89%E -3.29%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 01:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -3.26%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -5.89%E -3.29%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 01:45
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -3.26%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -5.89%E -3.29%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 01:44
Bally Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -3.26%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -5.89%E -3.29%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 01:45
betPARX🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -3.26%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -5.89%E -3.29%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 01:45
Caesars🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.15%E -2.58%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.79%E -2.07%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-17 02:09
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.15%E -2.58%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.79%E -2.07%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-17 01:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.15%E -2.58%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.79%E -2.07%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-17 02:10
picklebet_au🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -5.15%E -2.58%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -10.62%E -6.25%K -15.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 01:59
MyBookie.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -5.15%E -2.58%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -10.62%E -6.25%K -15.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 02:08
Betr (AU)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.93%EV -5.63%E -2.83%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%EV -7.47%E -4.24%K -9.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 01:50
DraftKings🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -6.10%E -3.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -2.73%E -1.48%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-17 02:00
FanDuel🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -6.10%E -3.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.79%E -2.07%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 01:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.10%E -3.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-17 01:45
SportsBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.58%E -3.34%K -6.78%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -3.79%E -2.07%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 01:59
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -1.68%E -0.900%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 02:09
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.40%EV -8.95%E -4.66%K -9.72%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.60%EV -9.04%E -5.23%K -12.39%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 01:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-10-17 02:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-10-17 02:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-10-17 02:05