Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Pistons v Toronto Raptors

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 23:12 UTC

Final: Detroit Pistons 129–125 Toronto Raptors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

79%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Pistons (Local)

Prediction 79.42%1.26fair odd

EV -2.32%

Edge -1.88%

Kelly -10.08%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

77.22%79.42%79.42%82.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.141.191.191.2387.72%84.21%83.68%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Raptors (Visit)

Prediction 20.58%4.86fair odd

EV +11.15%

Edge +2.06%

Kelly +2.53%

Growth +0.283%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.43%20.58%20.58%22.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.004.614.605.4025.00%21.69%21.74%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Detroit Pistons (Local): 79.42%; Toronto Raptors (Visit): 20.58%. For Toronto Raptors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.86. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -9.46%E -8.30%K -67.61%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV +11.15%E +2.06%K +2.53%G +0.283%	6.2%	2026-10-16 22:50
FanDuel🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -6.29%E -5.33%K -34.93%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV +0.858%E +0.175%K +0.220%G +0.002%	5.2%	2026-10-16 23:05
SportsBet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -7.08%E -6.05%K -41.66%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +0.858%E +0.175%K +0.220%G +0.002%	5.9%	2026-10-16 23:05
ReBet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -6.29%E -5.33%K -34.93%G +0.000%	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -0.171%E -0.035%K -0.045%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-16 23:05
theScore Bet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -8.67%E -7.54%K -57.80%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -1.20%E -0.250%K -0.316%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-10-16 23:05
DraftKings🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -3.91%E -3.23%K -18.60%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -3.26%E -0.693%K -0.881%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-16 22:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -3.91%E -3.23%K -18.60%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -3.26%E -0.693%K -0.881%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-16 22:50
Caesars🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -3.91%E -3.23%K -18.60%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -5.32%E -1.16%K -1.48%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-16 22:48
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.70%E -3.92%K -23.50%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.32%E -1.16%K -1.48%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.70%E -3.92%K -23.50%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.32%E -1.16%K -1.48%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:45
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.70%E -3.92%K -23.50%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.32%E -1.16%K -1.48%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:45
TABtouch🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.70%E -3.92%K -23.50%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.32%E -1.16%K -1.48%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:45
betPARX🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.70%E -3.92%K -23.50%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.32%E -1.16%K -1.48%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:45
Bally Bet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.70%E -3.92%K -23.50%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.32%E -1.16%K -1.48%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:45
Unibet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.70%E -3.92%K -23.50%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.32%E -1.16%K -1.48%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:50
BetRivers🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.70%E -3.92%K -23.50%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.32%E -1.16%K -1.48%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:45
Pinnacle🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.30%EV -5.49%E -4.62%K -28.92%G +0.000%	4.56I 21.93%NM 20.70%EV -6.14%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-16 23:05
picklebet_au🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -7.88%E -6.79%K -49.23%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -7.38%E -1.64%K -2.11%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-10-16 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 79.32%EV -7.88%E -6.79%K -49.23%G +0.000%	4.45I 22.47%NM 20.68%EV -8.40%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-10-16 23:04
BetUS🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -2.32%E -1.88%K -10.08%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -9.43%E -2.14%K -2.77%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-16 22:45
Bet Right🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -5.49%E -4.62%K -28.92%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -9.43%E -2.14%K -2.77%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-16 22:50
Betr (AU)🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -5.49%E -4.62%K -28.92%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -10.46%E -2.41%K -3.12%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-16 22:50
Fliff🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 79.09%EV -8.67%E -7.54%K -57.80%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 20.91%EV -10.46%E -2.41%K -3.12%G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-10-16 23:05
Betsson🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -6.29%E -5.33%K -34.93%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -17.67%E -4.42%K -5.89%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-10-16 22:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80%	4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%	1.1%	2026-10-16 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.24I 80.65%NM 79.47%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53%	1.5%	2026-10-16 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.24I 80.65%NM 79.47%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53%	1.5%	2026-10-16 23:05