Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denver Nuggets v Chicago Bulls

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 01:13 UTC

Final: Denver Nuggets 133–128 Chicago Bulls

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

69%

31%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denver Nuggets (Local)

Prediction 69.08%1.45fair odd

EV -1.91%

Edge -1.35%

Kelly -4.55%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.58%69.09%69.09%70.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.321.371.361.4275.76%73.22%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Bulls (Visit)

Prediction 30.92%3.23fair odd

EV +0.501%

Edge +0.154%

Kelly +0.223%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.04%30.91%30.91%32.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.953.103.103.2533.90%32.28%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denver Nuggets (Local): 69.08%; Chicago Bulls (Visit): 30.92%. For Chicago Bulls (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.501%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -8.13%E -6.11%K -24.63%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +0.501%E +0.154%K +0.223%G +0.001%	6.0%	2026-10-11 22:25
theScore Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -8.13%E -6.11%K -24.63%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.04%E -0.327%K -0.475%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-12 00:59
DraftKings🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.67%E -3.39%K -12.30%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.59%E -0.823%K -1.21%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-12 00:30
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.37%E -3.92%K -14.50%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -2.59%E -0.823%K -1.21%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-11 23:49
Unibet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.06%E -4.45%K -16.82%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.59%E -0.823%K -1.21%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-11 23:49
TABtouch🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.06%E -4.45%K -16.82%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.59%E -0.823%K -1.21%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-11 23:49
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.06%E -4.45%K -16.82%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.59%E -0.823%K -1.21%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-11 23:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.06%E -4.45%K -16.82%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.59%E -0.823%K -1.21%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-11 23:49
betPARX🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.06%E -4.45%K -16.82%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.59%E -0.823%K -1.21%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-11 23:49
Bally Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.06%E -4.45%K -16.82%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.59%E -0.823%K -1.21%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-11 23:50
BetUS🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.29%E -2.35%K -8.23%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-11 22:25
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -3.29%E -2.35%K -8.23%G +0.000%	3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -5.06%E -1.65%K -2.45%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-11 22:29
Pinnacle🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.23%EV -6.06%E -4.45%K -16.82%G +0.000%	3.06I 32.68%NM 30.77%EV -5.37%E -1.76%K -2.61%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-12 01:05
Bovada🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -2.60%E -1.85%K -6.35%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-12 01:04
FanDuel🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.67%E -3.39%K -12.30%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-12 01:04
Betr (AU)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -6.75%E -5.00%K -19.28%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-12 00:54
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -6.75%E -5.00%K -19.28%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-12 01:03
Bet Right🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -6.75%E -5.00%K -19.28%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-12 00:54
SportsBet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.37%E -3.92%K -14.50%G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -6.61%E -2.19%K -3.27%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-10-12 01:04
Caesars🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -1.91%E -1.35%K -4.55%G +0.000%	2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -8.47%E -2.86%K -4.32%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-11 22:25
Betsson🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -8.82%E -6.68%K -27.56%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -8.78%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-10-12 00:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.45I 68.97%NM 68.82%	3.20I 31.25%NM 31.18%	0.2%	2026-10-12 01:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%	3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%	0.7%	2026-10-12 01:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63%	3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%	1.3%	2026-10-12 01:05