The School of Odds
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Dallas Mavericks v New Orleans Pelicans

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 00:10 UTC

Final: Dallas Mavericks 97–101 New Orleans Pelicans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dallas Mavericks (Local)

Prediction 42.12%2.37fair odd
EV +5.31%
Edge +2.12%
Kelly +3.54%
Growth +0.188%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.12%41.57%42.43%44.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.242.202.5046.51%44.61%45.45%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Orleans Pelicans (Visit)

Prediction 57.88%1.73fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.603%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.81%58.43%57.57%61.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.651.661.7166.67%60.73%60.24%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dallas Mavericks (Local): 42.12%; New Orleans Pelicans (Visit): 57.88%. For Dallas Mavericks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +5.31%E +2.12%K +3.54%G +0.188%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -10.87%E -7.06%K -20.13%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-14 22:25
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV +1.10%E +0.457%K +0.784%G +0.009%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -9.71%E -6.23%K -17.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 00:00
picklebet_au🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV +1.10%E +0.457%K +0.784%G +0.009%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -12.03%E -7.91%K -23.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 23:59
MyBookie.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV +1.10%E +0.457%K +0.784%G +0.009%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -13.19%E -8.79%K -26.37%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-15 00:05
FanDuel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -2.27%E -0.980%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -6.24%E -3.85%K -10.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 23:49
SportsBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -3.96%E -1.74%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -7.40%E -4.62%K -12.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-14 23:50
Caesars🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -4.80%E -2.12%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -3.35%E -2.00%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-14 23:54
ReBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.22%E -2.32%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.50%E -2.73%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 23:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.22%E -2.32%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.24%E -3.85%K -10.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-14 23:50
DraftKings🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -5.64%E -2.52%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-15 00:05
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.06%E -2.72%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.50%E -2.73%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 00:00
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -1.03%E -0.603%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-14 23:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -1.03%E -0.603%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-14 23:54
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -1.03%E -0.603%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-14 23:54
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.24%E -3.85%K -10.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-14 23:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.82%E -4.24%K -11.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-14 23:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -9.01%E -4.17%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -1.03%E -0.603%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 23:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -9.01%E -4.17%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -1.03%E -0.603%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 23:54
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -9.01%E -4.17%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -1.03%E -0.603%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 23:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -9.01%E -4.17%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -1.03%E -0.603%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 23:50
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -9.01%E -4.17%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -1.03%E -0.603%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 23:54
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -9.01%E -4.17%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -1.03%E -0.603%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 23:54
Bally Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -9.01%E -4.17%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -1.03%E -0.603%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 23:50
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.43%E -4.39%K -8.20%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.64%EV -8.56%E -5.41%K -14.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-15 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57%1.6%2026-10-15 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%1.6%2026-10-15 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%2.0%2026-10-15 00:10