The School of Odds
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Chicago Bulls v Minnesota Timberwolves

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 00:10 UTC

Final: Chicago Bulls 133–116 Minnesota Timberwolves

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Bulls (Local)

Prediction 67.23%1.49fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -7.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.33%67.05%67.51%68.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.401.391.4474.07%71.65%71.94%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit)

Prediction 32.77%3.05fair odd
EV -0.056%
Edge -0.018%
Kelly -0.027%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.15%32.95%32.49%34.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.942.963.0538.46%34.00%33.78%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Bulls (Local): 67.23%; Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit): 32.77%. For Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.052. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.050, with an expected value of -0.056%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.19%E -2.21%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -8.25%E -2.95%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-16 23:55
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.86%E -2.70%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.33%E -1.13%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-16 23:18
BetUS🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.09%EV -4.53%E -3.19%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.91%EV -0.712%E -0.235%K -0.351%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-16 23:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.53%E -3.19%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.69%E -0.565%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-16 23:20
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -4.53%E -3.19%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -3.01%E -1.02%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-17 00:05
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.53%E -3.19%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.33%E -1.13%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-17 00:05
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.27%EV -4.53%E -3.19%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.73%EV -8.58%E -3.07%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 23:54
ReBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.69%E -0.565%K -0.847%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 00:10
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.59%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.69%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.41%EV -4.32%E -1.48%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 00:05
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.97%E -1.71%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 00:04
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.61%E -2.32%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 00:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -6.55%E -4.71%K -16.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.61%E -2.32%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-16 23:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.056%E -0.018%K -0.027%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.056%E -0.018%K -0.027%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 23:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.056%E -0.018%K -0.027%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 23:15
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.056%E -0.018%K -0.027%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 23:15
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.056%E -0.018%K -0.027%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 23:15
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.056%E -0.018%K -0.027%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 23:15
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.056%E -0.018%K -0.027%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 23:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -1.69%E -0.565%K -0.847%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 23:50
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.33%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -14.80%E -5.69%K -9.25%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-16 23:20
picklebet_au🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -7.89%E -5.76%K -21.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -6.61%E -2.32%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-16 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.86%EV -9.24%E -6.84%K -26.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.61%E -2.32%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 00:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%0.9%2026-10-17 00:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%0.9%2026-10-17 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%0.9%2026-10-17 00:05