The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Atlanta Hawks v Oklahoma City Thunder

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 23:10 UTC

Final: Atlanta Hawks 113–110 Oklahoma City Thunder

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlanta Hawks (Local)

Prediction 62.41%1.60fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -4.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.36%62.47%62.25%66.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.491.481.5669.93%67.30%67.57%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oklahoma City Thunder (Visit)

Prediction 37.59%2.66fair odd
EV +7.14%
Edge +2.51%
Kelly +3.86%
Growth +0.276%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.41%37.53%37.75%38.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.642.562.8542.55%37.88%38.99%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlanta Hawks (Local): 62.41%; Oklahoma City Thunder (Visit): 37.59%. For Oklahoma City Thunder (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -10.76%E -7.52%K -25.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +7.14%E +2.51%K +3.86%G +0.276%5.0%2026-10-12 22:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -10.76%E -7.52%K -25.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +7.14%E +2.51%K +3.86%G +0.276%5.0%2026-10-12 22:34
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -10.76%E -7.52%K -25.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +7.14%E +2.51%K +3.86%G +0.276%5.0%2026-10-12 22:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -10.76%E -7.52%K -25.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +7.14%E +2.51%K +3.86%G +0.276%5.0%2026-10-12 22:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -10.76%E -7.52%K -25.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +7.14%E +2.51%K +3.86%G +0.276%5.0%2026-10-12 22:34
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -10.76%E -7.52%K -25.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +7.14%E +2.51%K +3.86%G +0.276%5.0%2026-10-12 22:49
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -10.76%E -7.52%K -25.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +7.14%E +2.51%K +3.86%G +0.276%5.0%2026-10-12 22:48
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -5.77%E -3.82%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -0.379%E -0.143%K -0.230%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-12 23:08
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.90%EV -7.64%E -5.16%K -15.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.10%EV -1.51%E -0.575%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-12 23:00
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.52%E -2.95%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -3.01%E -1.17%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-12 22:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -2.64%E -1.70%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -3.39%E -1.32%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-12 22:34
FanDuel🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -5.14%E -3.38%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-12 22:25
ReBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -5.14%E -3.38%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-12 22:59
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.64%E -1.70%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -4.14%E -1.62%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-12 23:05
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.39%E -4.26%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.14%E -1.62%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-12 22:45
Bet Right🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -7.64%E -5.16%K -15.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -4.14%E -1.62%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-12 22:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -8.26%E -5.62%K -17.58%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -4.14%E -1.62%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-12 23:00
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -3.89%E -2.53%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -4.51%E -1.78%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-12 22:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.27%E -2.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.02%E -2.41%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-12 22:49
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.52%E -2.95%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.02%E -2.41%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 22:49
MyBookie.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -9.51%E -6.56%K -21.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.02%E -2.41%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-12 23:04
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -7.64%E -5.16%K -15.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -11.66%E -4.96%K -8.63%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-12 22:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%0.8%2026-10-12 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%0.8%2026-10-12 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%1.2%2026-10-12 23:10