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Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Oklahoma City Thunder (Local)
Prediction 72.94%1.37fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -6.64%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.24%73.06%72.87%75.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.301.301.3481.97%76.99%76.92%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denver Nuggets (Visit)
Prediction 27.06%3.70fair odd
EV +1.47%
Edge +0.391%
Kelly +0.533%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.55%26.94%27.13%29.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.523.543.7533.90%28.41%28.21%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oklahoma City Thunder (Local): 72.94%; Denver Nuggets (Visit): 27.06%. For Denver Nuggets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.47%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -6.63%E -5.18%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV +1.47%E +0.391%K +0.533%G +0.008% | 4.8% | 2026-10-22 13:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -6.63%E -5.18%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV +1.47%E +0.391%K +0.533%G +0.008% | 4.8% | 2026-10-22 13:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -6.63%E -5.18%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV +1.47%E +0.391%K +0.533%G +0.008% | 4.8% | 2026-10-23 01:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -11.01%E -9.03%K -50.05%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV +1.47%E +0.391%K +0.533%G +0.008% | 8.6% | 2026-10-23 01:41 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV +0.114%E +0.031%K +0.042%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-22 13:57 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +0.114%E +0.031%K +0.042%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-22 21:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +0.114%E +0.031%K +0.042%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-23 01:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87%EV -2.26%E -1.68%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13%EV -2.59%E -0.720%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-10-23 01:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87%EV -2.26%E -1.68%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13%EV -2.59%E -0.720%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-10-23 01:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.45%E -3.39%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.59%E -0.720%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-22 13:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.45%E -3.39%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.59%E -0.720%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-22 23:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.45%E -3.39%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.59%E -0.720%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-22 13:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.45%E -3.39%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.59%E -0.720%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.45%E -3.39%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.59%E -0.720%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -2.59%E -0.720%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-23 01:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.59%E -0.720%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-22 11:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.82%E -7.06%K -35.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -2.59%E -0.720%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-23 00:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.82%E -7.06%K -35.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -2.59%E -0.720%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-23 00:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.82%EV -2.26%E -1.68%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 27.18%EV -2.86%E -0.797%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-10-23 01:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -3.40%E -0.953%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-22 23:42 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -3.72%E -2.82%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-22 23:44 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -3.72%E -2.82%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-23 01:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -4.45%E -3.39%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-22 20:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-23 01:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-23 01:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.60%EV -7.36%E -5.80%K -27.27%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.40%EV -4.22%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-23 01:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.58%EV -2.99%E -2.25%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.76%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -2.99%E -2.25%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-23 01:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -2.99%E -2.25%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-22 23:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.72%E -2.82%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-22 18:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.72%E -2.82%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-23 01:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.72%E -2.82%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-22 18:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.45%E -3.39%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.45%E -3.39%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.45%E -3.39%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-22 22:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-22 23:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-22 23:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-22 23:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-22 23:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.63%E -5.18%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-22 13:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.63%E -5.18%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -5.30%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-22 13:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.41%EV -2.99%E -2.25%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.59%EV -5.57%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.45%E -3.39%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-23 00:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.45%E -3.39%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-23 01:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -7.36%E -5.80%K -27.27%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-23 00:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -2.99%E -2.25%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-23 01:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-22 13:46 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-23 00:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-23 01:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.83%EV -8.82%E -7.06%K -35.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.36%E -2.79%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -5.90%E -4.58%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -10.71%E -3.25%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-23 01:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.18%E -3.98%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -12.06%E -3.71%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-23 01:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.59%EV -8.82%E -7.06%K -35.29%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.41%EV -14.77%E -4.69%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-23 01:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.24%EV -8.82%E -7.06%K -35.29%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.76%EV -20.18%E -6.84%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-23 01:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71% | 0.2% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.12% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.88% | 0.5% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 0.6% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 0.6% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.2% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70% | 1.7% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.16% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84% | 2.6% | 2026-10-23 01:45 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54% | 3.8% | 2026-10-23 01:15 |