The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Miami Heat v Minnesota Timberwolves

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 23:43 UTC

Final: Miami Heat 106–131 Minnesota Timberwolves

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

67 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Heat (Local)

Prediction 52.79%1.89fair odd
EV +0.303%
Edge +0.160%
Kelly +0.337%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%52.97%52.70%55.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.811.811.9058.82%55.32%55.25%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit)

Prediction 47.21%2.12fair odd
EV +1.50%
Edge +0.697%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.74%47.03%47.30%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.012.002.1553.19%49.72%50.00%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Heat (Local): 52.79%; Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit): 47.21%. For Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.50%.

Sportsbook Odds (67 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 54.29%EV -4.45%E -2.46%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.71%EV +1.50%E +0.697%K +1.30%G +0.020%1.8%2026-10-21 23:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.98%EV -5.50%E -3.07%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.02%EV -0.862%E -0.410%K -0.783%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-21 23:35
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.56%E -3.71%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -0.862%E -0.410%K -0.783%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-21 23:39
TAB🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.56%E -3.71%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -0.862%E -0.410%K -0.783%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-21 23:15
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.56%E -3.71%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -0.862%E -0.410%K -0.783%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-21 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -10.25%E -6.03%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -0.862%E -0.410%K -0.783%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-21 23:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -6.03%E -3.39%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -1.81%E -0.868%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 23:35
ReBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -5.50%E -3.07%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -2.28%E -1.10%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-21 23:20
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -1.28%E -0.685%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -3.22%E -1.57%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.3%2026-10-21 22:44
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%EV -2.34%E -1.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%EV -3.22%E -1.57%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-21 23:04
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%EV -2.34%E -1.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%EV -3.22%E -1.57%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-21 23:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.22%E -1.57%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 23:00
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.22%E -1.57%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 23:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.22%E -1.57%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 22:40
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.22%E -1.57%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 23:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -6.03%E -3.39%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.22%E -1.57%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 23:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -7.09%E -4.03%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -3.22%E -1.57%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-21 23:19
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -8.67%E -5.01%K -11.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -3.22%E -1.57%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 23:30
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -3.39%E -1.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -3.69%E -1.81%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-21 20:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -3.39%E -1.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -3.69%E -1.81%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-21 23:30
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.64%E -2.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 23:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.64%E -2.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 23:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.64%E -2.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 23:15
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.64%E -2.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 23:15
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.64%E -2.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 23:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.64%E -2.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 23:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.64%E -2.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 23:15
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.64%E -2.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 23:15
Dabble (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.64%E -2.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 23:35
FanDuel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -2.34%E -1.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-21 20:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -2.34%E -1.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-20 16:15
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -2.34%E -1.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-21 12:34
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.39%E -1.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-20 16:15
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.39%E -1.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-21 22:20
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.39%E -1.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-21 21:35
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.39%E -1.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-21 22:47
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.39%E -1.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-21 23:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-21 23:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-21 22:30
Neds🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-21 22:30
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-21 23:20
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.45%E -2.46%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-21 23:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.45%E -2.46%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-21 23:15
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-05 06:45
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-21 21:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-21 21:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-21 21:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-21 23:15
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-21 23:35
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.58%E -2.79%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-21 21:39
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.69%EV -1.81%E -0.972%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.31%EV -6.05%E -3.04%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-21 23:30
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -2.34%E -1.26%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -6.53%E -3.30%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-21 22:20
MyBookie.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -2.86%E -1.56%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -6.53%E -3.30%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-21 23:29
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -6.53%E -3.30%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-21 23:20
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -3.92%E -2.15%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -6.53%E -3.30%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-21 23:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -5.50%E -3.07%K -6.97%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -6.53%E -3.30%K -6.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-21 23:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.56%E -3.71%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -6.53%E -3.30%K -6.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-21 23:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -7.62%E -4.35%K -10.15%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -7.00%E -3.55%K -7.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-21 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -7.09%E -4.03%K -9.33%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -7.47%E -3.81%K -7.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 23:30
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.94%E -4.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-21 22:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.94%E -4.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-21 22:30
picklebet_au🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.98%E -2.76%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.94%E -4.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-21 23:30
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.62%E -4.35%K -10.15%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.94%E -4.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-21 23:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.60%EV -8.67%E -5.01%K -11.88%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.40%EV -9.36%E -4.87%K -10.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-21 23:15
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +0.303%E +0.160%K +0.337%G +0.001%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -10.30%E -5.42%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 23:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +0.303%E +0.160%K +0.337%G +0.001%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -10.30%E -5.42%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 23:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.22%EV -9.20%E -5.35%K -12.78%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.78%EV -11.25%E -5.98%K -12.78%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 23:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13%0.4%2026-10-21 23:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13%0.4%2026-10-21 23:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13%0.4%2026-10-21 23:35
Novig◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.75%2.15I 46.51%NM 46.25%0.6%2026-10-21 23:25
Matchbook◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%0.8%2026-10-21 23:40
ProphetX◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.88%2.15I 46.51%NM 46.12%0.9%2026-10-21 23:40
Polymarket◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-10-21 23:30
BetOpenly◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.27%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.73%1.2%2026-10-21 23:29
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.33%1.8%2026-10-21 23:40
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.9%2026-10-21 23:10