The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks

Kickoff: 2026-10-26 23:41 UTC

Final: Miami Heat 109–113 Dallas Mavericks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

67 sportsbooks (23 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Heat (Local)

Prediction 69.77%1.43fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -5.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.75%69.79%69.66%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.361.361.4078.74%73.59%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dallas Mavericks (Visit)

Prediction 30.23%3.31fair odd
EV +0.978%
Edge +0.293%
Kelly +0.418%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%30.21%30.34%33.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.553.143.173.3439.22%31.81%31.55%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Heat (Local): 69.77%; Dallas Mavericks (Visit): 30.23%. For Dallas Mavericks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.978%.

Sportsbook Odds (67 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.76%EV -3.72%E -2.70%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.24%EV +0.978%E +0.293%K +0.418%G +0.004%2.4%2026-10-26 22:30
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.94%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.06%EV +0.373%E +0.112%K +0.161%G +0.001%3.6%2026-10-26 23:09
Coolbet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -0.231%E -0.070%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-26 23:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -0.231%E -0.070%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-26 17:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -0.231%E -0.070%K -0.101%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-26 19:34
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.21%E -5.42%K -21.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.231%E -0.070%K -0.101%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-26 23:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.21%E -5.42%K -21.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.231%E -0.070%K -0.101%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-26 23:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -4.42%E -3.23%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -1.74%E -0.536%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-26 23:05
BetUS🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -4.42%E -3.23%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -1.74%E -0.536%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-26 23:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -1.74%E -0.536%K -0.775%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-26 23:29
BetAnything🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -1.74%E -0.536%K -0.775%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-26 22:40
Fliff🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -1.74%E -0.536%K -0.775%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -8.61%E -6.57%K -27.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -1.74%E -0.536%K -0.775%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-26 23:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.15%EV -4.42%E -3.23%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV -2.65%E -0.823%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-26 23:05
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.57%EV -2.33%E -1.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-26 23:34
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.57%EV -2.33%E -1.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-26 23:35
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.42%E -3.23%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-26 23:14
TAB🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.42%E -3.23%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-26 22:50
theScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.42%E -3.23%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-26 23:15
GTbets🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.42%E -3.23%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-26 23:30
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:15
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:40
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:25
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:25
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:25
Bally Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-26 23:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-26 23:24
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.25%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-26 23:24
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.67%EV -3.72%E -2.70%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.33%EV -4.16%E -1.31%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-26 23:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -2.33%E -1.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -4.77%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-26 23:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -3.02%E -2.18%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -4.77%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-26 23:35
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.72%E -2.70%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.77%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-26 23:25
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.72%E -2.70%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.77%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-26 23:29
Caesars🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.42%E -3.23%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.77%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-26 23:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -6.51%E -4.86%K -19.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -4.77%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-26 23:25
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.42%E -3.23%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-26 22:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.42%E -3.23%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-26 23:15
ReBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.42%E -3.23%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-26 23:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.42%E -3.23%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-26 23:20
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 22:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 22:45
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 22:15
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 22:35
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 23:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 22:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 22:15
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-26 23:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-26 23:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.28%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-26 23:30
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.79%E -2.55%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-26 23:24
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.79%E -2.55%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-26 23:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -9.30%E -7.16%K -31.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -7.79%E -2.55%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-26 23:24
Dabble (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.33%E -1.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -9.30%E -3.10%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:30
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.33%E -1.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -9.30%E -3.10%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 23:35
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.30%E -3.10%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-26 23:20
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.12%E -3.76%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.30%E -3.10%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-26 23:34
picklebet_au🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.30%E -3.10%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-26 23:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.61%EV -8.61%E -6.57%K -27.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.30%E -3.10%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-26 23:30
LeoVegas🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -10.81%E -3.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 23:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -5.81%E -4.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -10.81%E -3.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 23:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.51%EV -8.61%E -6.57%K -27.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.49%EV -13.84%E -4.85%K -7.48%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-26 23:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 66.75%EV -11.40%E -8.97%K -42.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.25%EV -22.91%E -8.98%K -14.78%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-26 23:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.63%3.51I 28.49%NM 28.37%0.4%2026-10-26 23:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-10-26 23:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-10-26 23:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-10-26 23:40
ProphetX◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-10-26 23:30
Kalshi◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-26 17:50
Polymarket◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-26 22:10
Matchbook◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-10-26 23:40
BetOpenly◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.46%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.54%1.4%2026-10-26 23:29
Smarkets◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.68%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.32%1.8%2026-10-26 23:30