The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Denver Nuggets v New Orleans Pelicans

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 01:14 UTC

Final: Denver Nuggets 141–135 New Orleans Pelicans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

61 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denver Nuggets (Local)

Prediction 79.74%1.25fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.907%
Kelly -4.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.57%79.88%79.90%82.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.191.201.2488.50%83.80%83.33%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Orleans Pelicans (Visit)

Prediction 20.26%4.94fair odd
EV +11.44%
Edge +2.08%
Kelly +2.54%
Growth +0.291%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.54%20.12%20.10%22.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.154.684.605.5024.10%21.36%21.74%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denver Nuggets (Local): 79.74%; New Orleans Pelicans (Visit): 20.26%. For New Orleans Pelicans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.94. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 82.34%EV -5.91%E -5.01%K -32.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66%EV +11.44%E +2.08%K +2.54%G +0.291%2.9%2026-10-25 00:54
Bet Victor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 82.34%EV -5.91%E -5.01%K -32.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66%EV +11.44%E +2.08%K +2.54%G +0.291%2.9%2026-10-25 00:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -6.71%E -5.73%K -39.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +11.44%E +2.08%K +2.54%G +0.291%3.7%2026-10-25 00:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -6.71%E -5.73%K -39.45%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV +9.41%E +1.74%K +2.14%G +0.201%4.0%2026-10-25 01:00
ReBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -7.50%E -6.47%K -46.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV +5.36%E +1.03%K +1.28%G +0.068%5.4%2026-10-25 00:59
888sport🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -8.30%E -7.22%K -55.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV +5.36%E +1.03%K +1.28%G +0.068%6.2%2026-10-25 00:59
William Hill🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -8.30%E -7.22%K -55.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV +5.36%E +1.03%K +1.28%G +0.068%6.2%2026-10-25 01:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -8.30%E -7.22%K -55.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV +5.36%E +1.03%K +1.28%G +0.068%6.2%2026-10-25 00:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.91%E -5.01%K -32.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +1.31%E +0.262%K +0.327%G +0.004%4.7%2026-10-24 18:48
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.91%E -5.01%K -32.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +1.31%E +0.262%K +0.327%G +0.004%4.7%2026-10-25 01:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.71%E -5.73%K -39.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +1.31%E +0.262%K +0.327%G +0.004%5.5%2026-10-25 00:40
Neds🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.71%E -5.73%K -39.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +1.31%E +0.262%K +0.327%G +0.004%5.5%2026-10-25 00:40
Fliff🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.62%EV -5.11%E -4.30%K -26.90%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.38%EV +0.295%E +0.060%K +0.075%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 01:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -7.50%E -6.47%K -46.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -0.718%E -0.146%K -0.184%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 01:05
FanDuel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.17%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -1.73%E -0.357%K -0.450%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-25 00:45
SportsBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.17%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -1.73%E -0.357%K -0.450%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-25 01:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 80.00%EV -3.52%E -2.91%K -16.75%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 20.00%EV -1.93%E -0.399%K -0.503%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-24 17:25
BetUS🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.07%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.93%EV -2.34%E -0.485%K -0.612%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 17:24
Coolbet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -2.74%E -0.572%K -0.722%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 01:59
TAB🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -2.74%E -0.572%K -0.722%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 02:58
theScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.91%E -5.01%K -32.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -2.74%E -0.572%K -0.722%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 23:25
LeoVegas🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -8.30%E -7.22%K -55.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -2.74%E -0.572%K -0.722%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 01:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.90%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 20.10%EV -3.35%E -0.703%K -0.889%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 17:25
GTbets🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -3.76%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-25 00:50
BetMGM🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -3.76%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-25 00:40
BetAnything🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -3.76%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-24 15:25
DraftKings🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -3.52%E -2.91%K -16.75%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -4.77%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-24 03:00
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.88%EV -1.12%E -0.907%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 21.12%EV -6.19%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.2%2026-10-24 23:55
Fanatics🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -3.52%E -2.91%K -16.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -6.80%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-25 00:15
Caesars🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -3.52%E -2.91%K -16.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -6.80%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-25 00:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -6.80%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 12:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.91%E -5.01%K -32.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -6.80%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 00:40
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.91%E -5.01%K -32.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -6.80%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 00:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.72%E -2.23%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 00:55
Bet Right🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -3.52%E -2.91%K -16.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-25 00:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 02:00
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 02:20
picklebet_au🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -5.11%E -4.30%K -26.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 22:05
Betway🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.91%E -5.01%K -32.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 01:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.93%EV -9.90%E -8.76%K -76.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-25 01:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.93%EV -9.90%E -8.76%K -76.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-25 00:59
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.72%E -2.23%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 00:50
Dabble (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.72%E -2.23%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 01:05
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.72%E -2.23%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 23:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.72%E -2.23%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 00:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.72%E -2.23%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 00:40
Unibet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.72%E -2.23%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 00:40
BetRivers🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.72%E -2.23%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 00:40
Bally Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.72%E -2.23%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 00:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.72%E -2.23%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 00:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.72%E -2.23%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 00:40
betPARX🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.72%E -2.23%K -12.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 00:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -3.52%E -2.91%K -16.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 00:00
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -3.52%E -2.91%K -16.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.85%E -2.47%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 00:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -11.86%E -2.73%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 00:40
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -12.27%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -12.27%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 22:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -7.50%E -6.47%K -46.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -14.90%E -3.55%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 00:00
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -15.91%E -3.83%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-25 00:50
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -4.31%E -3.60%K -21.57%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -15.91%E -3.83%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 21:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.24I 80.65%NM 80.44%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.56%0.3%2026-10-25 01:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%0.6%2026-10-25 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%0.6%2026-10-25 01:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%0.6%2026-10-25 01:00
ProphetX◎1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%0.6%2026-10-25 01:00
Novig◎1.24I 80.65%NM 79.74%4.88I 20.49%NM 20.26%1.1%2026-10-25 01:05
Polymarket◎1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74%1.3%2026-10-25 01:00
Kalshi◎1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74%1.3%2026-10-25 00:55
BetOpenly◎1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%2.0%2026-10-25 00:59
Smarkets◎1.22I 81.97%NM 80.07%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.93%2.4%2026-10-25 01:05