Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Cavaliers v Dallas Mavericks

Inicio: 2026-11-15 00:41 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

69 corredores (22 en el análisis )

26%

74%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Cavaliers (Local)

Predicción 25.74%3.89momio equitativo

EV +4.24%

Ventaja +1.05%

Kelly +1.39%

Crecimiento +0.059%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

23.73%25.84%25.60%29.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.903.653.654.0534.48%27.43%27.40%24.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Dallas Mavericks (Visitante)

Predicción 74.26%1.35momio equitativo

EV -1.98%

Ventaja -1.50%

Kelly -6.17%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

70.73%74.16%74.40%76.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.201.291.291.3283.33%77.82%77.52%75.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Cleveland Cavaliers (Local): 25.74%; Dallas Mavericks (Visitante): 74.26%. Para Cleveland Cavaliers (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.89. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.05, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.24%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (69 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local ▼	Visitante	Margen	Actualizado
SportsBet🎯	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV +4.24%E +1.05%K +1.39%G +0.059%	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.27%EV -6.43%E -5.10%K -24.74%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-11-15 00:10
LowVig.ag🎯	4.01I 24.94%NM 24.05%EV +3.21%E +0.801%K +1.07%G +0.034%	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.95%EV -5.69%E -4.48%K -21.07%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-11-15 00:35
FanDuel🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +2.96%E +0.739%K +0.985%G +0.029%	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -5.69%E -4.48%K -21.07%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-11-15 00:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +2.96%E +0.739%K +0.985%G +0.029%	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -5.69%E -4.48%K -21.07%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-11-15 00:40
Betr (AU)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +2.96%E +0.739%K +0.985%G +0.029%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.70%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-15 00:25
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.96I 25.25%NM 24.28%EV +1.93%E +0.487%K +0.651%G +0.013%	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.72%EV -5.69%E -4.48%K -21.07%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-11-15 00:35
Fliff🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +0.382%E +0.098%K +0.132%G +0.001%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -6.43%E -5.10%K -24.74%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-15 00:40
Pinnacle🎯	3.87I 25.84%NM 25.29%EV -0.390%E -0.101%K -0.136%G +0.000%	1.31I 76.34%NM 74.71%EV -2.72%E -2.07%K -8.77%G +0.000%	2.2%	2026-11-15 00:35
betano_uk🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV -2.19%E -0.577%K -0.783%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.51%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-11-15 00:19
Bet Victor🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV -2.19%E -0.577%K -0.783%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.51%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-11-15 00:19
Coolbet🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -2.19%E -0.577%K -0.783%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-11-15 00:20
Everygame🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -2.19%E -0.577%K -0.783%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-11-15 00:28
Paddy Power🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.19%E -0.577%K -0.783%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.70%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-15 00:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.19%E -0.577%K -0.783%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.70%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-15 00:10
1xBet🎯	3.77I 26.53%NM 25.64%EV -2.96%E -0.786%K -1.07%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.36%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-11-15 00:00
DraftKings🎯	3.76I 26.60%NM 25.54%EV -3.22%E -0.857%K -1.17%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.46%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-11-14 23:59
Unibet (UK)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -3.48%E -0.928%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-11-15 00:30
Fanatics🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.48%E -0.928%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:15
Caesars🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.48%E -0.928%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:40
GTbets🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.48%E -0.928%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:10
BetMGM🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.48%E -0.928%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.48%E -0.928%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:10
Bovada🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.48%E -0.928%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:15
Sky Bet🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -3.48%E -0.928%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.70%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-11-15 00:30
TAB🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -4.77%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-11-15 00:10
MyBookie.ag🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -4.77%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-11-14 23:00
BetUS🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -4.77%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-11-15 00:19
Winamax (DE)🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.77%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-11-15 00:30
theScore Bet🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.77%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-11-15 00:00
BetAnything🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.77%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-11-14 23:20
Coral🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.77%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.95%E -3.86%K -17.66%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-11-15 00:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.77%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.95%E -3.86%K -17.66%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-11-15 00:25
Bet Right🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.77%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.69%E -4.48%K -21.07%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-15 00:30
Marathon Bet🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.77%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.70%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-11-15 00:40
picklebet_au🎯	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -6.05%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:40
ReBet🎯	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -6.05%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:40
Dabble (AU)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-15 00:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-15 00:10
Neds🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-15 00:10
888sport🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-14 23:25
BoyleSports🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-15 00:30
William Hill🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-14 23:25
888sport (SE)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-14 23:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-14 23:25
PlayUp🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.95%E -3.86%K -17.66%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-14 22:55
NordicBet🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.70%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-11-15 00:10
Betsson🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.70%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-11-15 00:10
Codere (IT)🎯	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -8.63%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:30
NetBet (FR)🎯	3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -8.63%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 74.42%EV -9.40%E -7.71%K -42.73%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-11-15 00:30
BetRivers🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.97%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -1.98%E -1.50%K -6.17%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:30
Unibet (NL)🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.97%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -1.98%E -1.50%K -6.17%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:35
Unibet (SE)🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.97%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -1.98%E -1.50%K -6.17%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:35
Unibet🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.97%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -1.98%E -1.50%K -6.17%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:35
Svenska Spel🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.97%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -1.98%E -1.50%K -6.17%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:35
ATG (SE)🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.97%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -1.98%E -1.50%K -6.17%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:35
Bally Bet🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.97%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -1.98%E -1.50%K -6.17%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:30
betPARX🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.97%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -1.98%E -1.50%K -6.17%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:30
betfred_uk🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.97%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-15 00:29
Casumo🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.97%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-15 00:35
LiveScore Bet🎯	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.20%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-15 00:35
TABtouch🎯	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.20%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-15 00:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.20%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-15 00:30
Virgin Bet🎯	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -11.20%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.49%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-11-15 00:35
LeoVegas🎯	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -11.20%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -6.43%E -5.10%K -24.74%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-11-15 00:35
Tipico (DE)🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -12.49%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.54%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-14 22:55
Winamax (FR)🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -15.06%E -4.56%K -6.55%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 72.53%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.70%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-11-15 00:30
PMU (FR)🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -15.06%E -4.56%K -6.55%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 72.53%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.70%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-11-15 00:35
Betclic (FR)🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -15.06%E -4.56%K -6.55%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 72.69%EV -7.92%E -6.38%K -32.99%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-11-15 00:34
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 29.27%EV -25.36%E -8.74%K -13.35%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 70.73%EV -10.89%E -9.07%K -54.43%G +0.000%	17.8%	2026-11-15 00:30

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Novig◎	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.87%	1.29I 77.52%NM 77.13%	0.5%	2026-11-15 00:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%	1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%	0.7%	2026-11-15 00:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%	1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%	0.7%	2026-11-15 00:30
ProphetX◎	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%	0.8%	2026-11-15 00:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%	0.8%	2026-11-15 00:40
Kalshi◎	4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77%	1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23%	0.9%	2026-11-15 00:30
Polymarket◎	4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77%	1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23%	0.9%	2026-11-15 00:10
Smarkets◎	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36%	1.28I 78.13%NM 76.64%	1.9%	2026-11-15 00:40
Matchbook◎	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39%	1.29I 77.52%NM 75.61%	2.5%	2026-11-15 00:40
BetOpenly◎	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%	9.1%	2026-11-15 00:24

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