Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boston Celtics v Minnesota Timberwolves

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 00:13 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

77%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boston Celtics (Local)

Prediction 77.49%1.29fair odd

EV -5.46%

Edge -4.48%

Kelly -24.82%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

77.49%77.49%77.49%78.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.211.211.2283.33%82.64%82.64%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit)

Prediction 22.51%4.44fair odd

EV +2.42%

Edge +0.531%

Kelly +0.681%

Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.05%22.51%22.51%22.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.204.444.504.5523.81%22.54%22.22%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boston Celtics (Local): 77.49%; Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit): 22.51%. For Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.86%EV -5.46%E -4.48%K -24.82%G +0.000%	4.55I 21.98%NM 21.14%EV +2.42%E +0.531%K +0.681%G +0.016%	3.9%	2026-03-23 00:12
Paddy Power🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.01%E -5.84%K -35.06%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +1.29%E +0.287%K +0.369%G +0.005%	5.6%	2026-03-23 00:13
Sky Bet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.01%E -5.84%K -35.06%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +1.29%E +0.287%K +0.369%G +0.005%	5.6%	2026-03-23 00:13
FanDuel🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.46%E -4.48%K -24.82%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-23 00:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%	0.8%	2026-03-23 00:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%	0.8%	2026-03-23 00:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%	0.8%	2026-03-23 00:15