The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Žalgiris v ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 17:00 UTC

Final: Žalgiris 105–85 ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Žalgiris (Local)

Prediction 74.44%1.34fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -5.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.00%74.46%74.32%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.261.251.3284.75%79.22%79.68%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit)

Prediction 25.56%3.91fair odd
EV +2.23%
Edge +0.558%
Kelly +0.744%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.08%25.54%25.68%30.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.083.713.734.0032.47%26.99%26.85%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Žalgiris (Local): 74.44%; ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit): 25.56%. For ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.23%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -10.67%E -8.89%K -53.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV +2.23%E +0.558%K +0.744%G +0.017%8.3%2026-10-23 09:39
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -10.67%E -8.89%K -53.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV +2.23%E +0.558%K +0.744%G +0.017%8.3%2026-10-23 09:38
SportsBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -7.69%E -6.20%K -32.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV +0.954%E +0.241%K +0.323%G +0.003%6.0%2026-10-23 09:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -4.71%E -3.68%K -16.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -0.324%E -0.083%K -0.112%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-23 14:13
LiveScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.95%E -5.56%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -0.324%E -0.083%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 08:36
Unibet (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.95%E -5.56%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -0.324%E -0.083%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 08:36
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.95%E -5.56%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -0.324%E -0.083%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 08:36
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.95%E -5.56%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -0.324%E -0.083%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 08:36
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.95%E -5.56%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -0.324%E -0.083%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 08:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.95%E -5.56%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -0.324%E -0.083%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 08:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.95%E -5.56%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -0.324%E -0.083%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 08:36
Winamax (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -5.46%E -4.30%K -20.22%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -1.60%E -0.416%K -0.562%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-23 09:46
NordicBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -6.20%E -4.92%K -23.86%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -1.60%E -0.416%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 09:45
Betsson🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -6.20%E -4.92%K -23.86%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -1.60%E -0.416%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 09:45
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -7.69%E -6.20%K -32.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -1.60%E -0.416%K -0.562%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 08:35
TABtouch🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -7.69%E -6.20%K -32.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -1.60%E -0.416%K -0.562%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 08:36
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.97%E -3.08%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -2.88%E -0.758%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-23 11:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.97%E -3.08%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -2.88%E -0.758%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-23 15:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.97%E -3.08%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -2.88%E -0.758%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-23 15:45
ReBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.46%E -4.30%K -20.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.88%E -0.758%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 11:10
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -7.69%E -6.20%K -32.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -2.88%E -0.758%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 09:55
GTbets🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.10%EV -6.95%E -5.56%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.90%EV -3.65%E -0.967%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-23 10:00
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.95%E -5.56%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 09:38
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.18%E -7.53%K -41.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 09:55
Coolbet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.71%E -3.68%K -16.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 14:13
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -7.69%E -6.20%K -32.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-23 09:39
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -7.69%E -6.20%K -32.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-23 09:39
Fanatics🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -6.20%E -4.92%K -23.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -6.71%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 09:45
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.97%E -3.08%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 10:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.97%E -3.08%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 10:35
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.97%E -3.08%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 10:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.97%E -3.08%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 10:35
theScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.46%E -4.30%K -20.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-23 09:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.46%E -4.30%K -20.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-23 09:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.95%E -5.56%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-23 15:44
MyBookie.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.95%E -5.56%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-23 15:48
PMU (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.31%EV -12.16%E -10.30%K -67.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-23 08:36
1xBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.06%EV -1.74%E -1.32%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.94%EV -8.50%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-23 15:50
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.06%EV -1.74%E -1.32%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.94%EV -8.50%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-23 15:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.10%EV -2.48%E -1.89%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.90%EV -9.01%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-23 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.11%EV -7.69%E -6.20%K -32.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-23 09:45
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -1.74%E -1.32%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -10.55%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 15:40
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -1.74%E -1.32%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -10.55%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 15:44
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.71%E -3.68%K -16.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -10.55%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 11:59
TAB🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -5.46%E -4.30%K -20.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -10.55%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-23 15:40
picklebet_au🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.84%EV -7.69%E -6.20%K -32.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -10.55%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 09:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 72.56%EV -9.93%E -8.20%K -47.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -18.21%E -5.69%K -8.28%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-23 09:45
BetUS🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.00%EV -1.74%E -1.32%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.00%EV -21.28%E -6.91%K -10.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-23 15:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-10-23 15:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-10-23 15:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-10-23 15:59
Smarkets◎1.31I 76.34%NM 74.61%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.39%2.3%2026-10-23 15:59
Matchbook◎1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04%2.4%2026-10-23 15:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.41%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.03%10.5%2026-10-23 09:39