The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Virtus Segafredo Bologna v Žalgiris

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 19:30 UTC

Final: Virtus Segafredo Bologna 74–91 Žalgiris

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Local)

Prediction 52.71%1.90fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.761%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.54%52.63%52.67%53.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.791.801.8760.24%55.82%55.56%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Žalgiris (Visit)

Prediction 47.29%2.11fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.37%47.37%47.33%49.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.982.002.0754.95%50.40%50.00%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Local): 52.71%; Žalgiris (Visit): 47.29%. For Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.87, with an expected value of -1.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -1.42%E -0.761%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-28 17:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -3.01%E -1.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -6.37%E -3.22%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-28 13:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -3.53%E -1.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -3.54%E -1.73%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-28 16:33
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.53%E -1.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-28 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -3.53%E -1.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -11.58%E -6.19%K -13.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 17:30
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -3.53%E -1.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -11.58%E -6.19%K -13.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 17:29
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -4.06%E -2.23%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -3.06%E -1.50%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-28 18:50
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.06%E -2.23%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-28 18:40
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -4.59%E -2.53%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -2.59%E -1.26%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-28 19:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -4.59%E -2.53%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -3.54%E -1.73%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-28 18:45
ReBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.59%E -2.53%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-28 15:40
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.06%E -1.50%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-28 19:19
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.06%E -1.50%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-28 19:20
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.48%E -2.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-28 16:00
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.48%E -2.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-28 16:00
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 19:20
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 19:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 19:20
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 21:50
picklebet_au🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 19:29
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-28 19:19
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-28 15:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-28 07:50
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-28 07:30
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -5.11%E -2.84%K -6.39%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -12.52%E -6.77%K -14.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-28 17:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -5.64%E -3.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -2.12%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-28 19:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -5.64%E -3.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -2.12%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-28 19:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.64%E -3.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.48%E -2.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 19:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.64%E -3.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.48%E -2.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 19:19
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.64%E -3.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.48%E -2.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 19:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.64%E -3.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.48%E -2.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 19:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.64%E -3.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.48%E -2.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 19:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.64%E -3.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.48%E -2.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 19:20
SportsBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.64%E -3.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -5.90%E -2.97%K -5.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 16:00
FanDuel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%EV -5.64%E -3.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%EV -8.74%E -4.53%K -9.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-28 13:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -6.17%E -3.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -4.48%E -2.22%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-28 19:19
GTbets🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -6.17%E -3.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -6.85%E -3.48%K -7.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-28 05:20
BetUS🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.50%EV -6.17%E -3.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.50%EV -10.63%E -5.62%K -11.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-28 19:29
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.70%E -3.78%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-28 10:55
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.70%E -3.78%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-28 19:19
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.70%E -3.78%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-28 19:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -6.70%E -3.78%K -8.69%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-28 16:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -6.70%E -3.78%K -8.69%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -8.27%E -4.26%K -8.79%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-28 13:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.46%EV -8.28%E -4.76%K -11.18%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.54%EV -9.21%E -4.80%K -10.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-28 19:29
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.80%E -5.09%K -12.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-27 19:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.09%EV -11.97%E -7.17%K -17.86%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.91%EV -10.63%E -5.62%K -11.94%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-28 19:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.30%EV -12.49%E -7.53%K -18.93%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 47.70%EV -13.94%E -7.66%K -17.00%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-28 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%0.5%2026-10-28 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%0.5%2026-10-28 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%0.6%2026-10-28 19:25
Smarkets◎1.86I 53.76%NM 52.79%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.21%1.8%2026-10-28 19:20
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 52.79%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.21%1.8%2026-10-28 19:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.50%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.90%12.4%2026-10-28 17:29

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