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Virtus Segafredo Bologna v Saski Baskonia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Local)
Prediction 62.84%1.59fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.74%62.91%62.73%64.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.501.501.5672.46%66.77%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Saski Baskonia (Visit)
Prediction 37.16%2.69fair odd
EV +1.82%
Edge +0.664%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 2.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.22%37.09%37.27%40.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.562.562.7443.48%39.09%38.99%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Local): 62.84%; Saski Baskonia (Visit): 37.16%. For Saski Baskonia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.69. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.74, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.82%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.78%EV -6.37%E -4.27%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.22%EV +1.82%E +0.664%K +1.04%G +0.019% | 3.6% | 2026-10-16 18:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -6.37%E -4.27%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV +1.45%E +0.530%K +0.836%G +0.012% | 3.7% | 2026-10-16 18:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.68%EV -7.00%E -4.73%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.32%EV +0.703%E +0.260%K +0.411%G +0.003% | 4.5% | 2026-10-16 18:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -6.37%E -4.27%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV +0.332%E +0.123%K +0.195%G +0.001% | 4.2% | 2026-10-16 18:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -7.00%E -4.73%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV +0.332%E +0.123%K +0.195%G +0.001% | 4.6% | 2026-10-16 18:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.85%E -2.52%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -1.53%E -0.576%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-16 18:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.85%E -2.52%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -1.53%E -0.576%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-16 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -1.53%E -0.576%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-16 18:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -1.53%E -0.576%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-16 18:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -1.53%E -0.576%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-16 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -1.53%E -0.576%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-16 18:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -1.53%E -0.576%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-16 18:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -1.53%E -0.576%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-16 18:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -1.53%E -0.576%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-16 18:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -8.25%E -5.65%K -17.94%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -1.53%E -0.576%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-16 18:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -8.88%E -6.13%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -1.53%E -0.576%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-16 18:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -3.23%E -2.10%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.38%E -1.30%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-16 18:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.38%E -1.30%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-16 18:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.38%E -1.30%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-16 18:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.38%E -1.30%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-16 18:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.38%E -1.30%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-16 18:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.38%E -1.30%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-16 18:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.46%EV -7.00%E -4.73%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.54%EV -4.50%E -1.75%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.21%EV -6.37%E -4.27%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.79%EV -4.87%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-16 18:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.48%E -2.95%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.24%E -2.06%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-16 18:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.48%E -2.95%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.24%E -2.06%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-16 18:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.48%E -2.95%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.24%E -2.06%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-16 18:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -4.48%E -2.95%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -5.61%E -2.21%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-16 18:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.09%EV -7.00%E -4.73%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.91%EV -5.99%E -2.37%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-16 18:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.85%E -2.52%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.10%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-16 17:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.85%E -2.52%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.10%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-16 17:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.10%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-16 18:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.10%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-16 17:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.10%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-16 18:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.10%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-16 18:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.43%EV -13.28%E -9.62%K -34.95%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.57%EV -7.10%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-16 18:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.12%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 37.88%EV -8.59%E -3.49%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-16 18:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -1.97%E -1.26%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -8.96%E -3.66%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-16 16:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.96%E -3.66%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-16 18:05 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -6.37%E -4.27%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -8.96%E -3.66%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-16 18:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -6.37%E -4.27%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -8.96%E -3.66%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-16 18:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -6.37%E -4.27%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -8.96%E -3.66%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-16 18:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -1.97%E -1.26%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -10.82%E -4.51%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-16 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -2.60%E -1.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -14.53%E -6.32%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-16 16:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -2.60%E -1.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -14.53%E -6.32%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-16 16:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -14.53%E -6.32%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-16 16:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.84% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.16% | 0.1% | 2026-10-16 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.84% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.16% | 0.1% | 2026-10-16 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.84% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.16% | 0.1% | 2026-10-16 18:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.02% | 1.3% | 2026-10-16 18:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.45% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.55% | 3.4% | 2026-10-16 18:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.77% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.38% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86% | 12.2% | 2026-10-16 16:55 |