L’École des cotesFrançais
Virtus Segafredo Bologna v FC Bayern München
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Local)
Prévision 54.95%1.82cote équitable
EV -3.30%
Avantage -1.87%
Kelly -4.34%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.76
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
53.24%54.99%54.92%55.93%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.671.721.711.7659.88%58.23%58.48%56.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
FC Bayern München (Visiteur)
Prévision 45.05%2.22cote équitable
EV -1.78%
Avantage -0.817%
Kelly -1.51%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 2.18
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.07%45.01%45.08%46.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.972.102.102.1850.76%47.54%47.62%45.87%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
1 opérateur propose un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché (3 issues, contre le format 2 issues retenu dans l’analyse). Cette disparité impose d’interpréter les résultats avec prudence.
Cotes des opérateurs (45 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE) | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -3.30%E -1.87%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -7.64%E -3.73%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 11:59 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -4.48%E -2.11%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 09:49 |
| William Hill | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -4.48%E -2.11%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-06 16:10 |
| 888sport | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 15:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 15:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 15:50 |
| Betway | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 13:04 |
| DraftKings | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.40%E -2.53%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.58%E -1.67%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-07 18:25 |
| FanDuel | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.40%E -2.53%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.48%E -2.11%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 12:00 |
| BetMGM | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.40%E -2.53%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 08:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -4.94%E -2.86%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -2.23%E -1.03%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-07 18:25 |
| Coolbet | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.94%E -2.86%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.48%E -2.11%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-07 16:40 |
| ReBet | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.94%E -2.86%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.48%E -2.11%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-07 12:35 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.94%E -2.86%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 12:00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.94%E -2.86%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 00:35 |
| BetUS | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -4.94%E -2.86%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%EV -11.24%E -5.71%K -11.59%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-07 18:20 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -1.78%E -0.817%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-06 13:05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -1.78%E -0.817%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-06 13:09 |
| Betsson | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.48%E -2.11%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 22:19 |
| NordicBet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.48%E -2.11%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 20:05 |
| TAB | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.64%E -3.73%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 14:14 |
| PlayUp | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.64%E -3.73%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 02:35 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -6.04%E -3.53%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -2.23%E -1.03%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 17:20 |
| Unibet | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -6.04%E -3.53%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -2.23%E -1.03%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 17:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -6.04%E -3.53%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -2.23%E -1.03%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 17:20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -6.04%E -3.53%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -2.23%E -1.03%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 17:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -6.04%E -3.53%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -2.23%E -1.03%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 17:20 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -6.04%E -3.53%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -2.23%E -1.03%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 17:20 |
| Bovada | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.04%E -3.53%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.13%E -1.46%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-07 16:34 |
| SportsBet | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -6.04%E -3.53%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.76%EV -4.93%E -2.34%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 11:59 |
| Fanatics | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.04%E -3.53%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-06 14:20 |
| theScore Bet | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.04%E -3.53%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.04%E -3.53%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.64%E -3.73%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-07 11:59 |
| BetRivers | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.59%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.13%E -1.46%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 17:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.73%EV -6.59%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.27%EV -3.58%E -1.67%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-07 17:20 |
| Everygame | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.59%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-07 16:24 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.59%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.89%E -4.95%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-07 11:29 |
| Coral | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.59%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.89%E -4.95%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-07 07:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.59%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.89%E -4.95%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-07 08:00 |
| Neds | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.59%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.89%E -4.95%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-07 08:00 |
| GTbets | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%EV -7.14%E -4.23%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%EV -8.09%E -3.96%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-06 09:50 |
| TABtouch | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -7.69%E -4.58%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -4.48%E -2.11%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-07 17:20 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -7.69%E -4.58%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -7.64%E -3.73%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-07 12:05 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.24%E -4.94%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-06 10:15 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.24%E -4.94%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-07 17:20 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81% | 2.4% | 2026-04-07 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81% | 2.4% | 2026-04-07 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81% | 2.4% | 2026-04-07 18:20 |
| Smarkets | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.96% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.04% | 2.8% | 2026-04-07 18:20 |
| Matchbook | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50% | 3.7% | 2026-04-07 18:20 |
Autres opérateurs — hors analyse (1)
Ces opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché et sont exclus de l’analyse. Leurs cotes sont données uniquement à titre indicatif : leurs règles de règlement peuvent différer et créer une incertitude supplémentaire.
| Opérateur | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.16% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.14% | 11.7% | 2026-04-07 08:00 |