Language:English
Valencia Basket v Saski Baskonia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Valencia Basket (Local)
Prediction 75.55%1.32fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -8.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.25%75.62%75.58%77.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.251.2981.97%79.81%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Saski Baskonia (Visit)
Prediction 24.45%4.09fair odd
EV +2.69%
Edge +0.640%
Kelly +0.840%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.51%24.38%24.42%26.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.843.814.2028.99%26.02%26.25%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valencia Basket (Local): 75.55%; Saski Baskonia (Visit): 24.45%. For Saski Baskonia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.69%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.83%E -6.42%K -35.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +2.69%E +0.640%K +0.840%G +0.023% | 5.8% | 2026-09-28 16:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.83%E -6.42%K -35.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +2.69%E +0.640%K +0.840%G +0.023% | 5.8% | 2026-09-28 16:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.83%E -6.42%K -35.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +2.69%E +0.640%K +0.840%G +0.023% | 5.8% | 2026-09-28 16:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -7.83%E -6.42%K -35.59%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV +1.47%E +0.353%K +0.466%G +0.007% | 6.1% | 2026-09-28 20:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.81%E -3.81%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -2.20%E -0.550%K -0.734%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-28 20:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.20%E -0.550%K -0.734%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 09:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.20%E -0.550%K -0.734%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-28 12:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.20%E -0.550%K -0.734%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 07:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.83%E -6.42%K -35.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -2.20%E -0.550%K -0.734%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-29 09:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -4.05%E -3.19%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -3.42%E -0.867%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-29 14:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -3.42%E -0.867%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 12:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -3.42%E -0.867%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-28 20:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -3.42%E -0.867%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-28 20:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.38%EV -3.30%E -2.57%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.62%EV -4.16%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-29 15:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.05%E -3.19%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -4.65%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-29 06:52 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.81%E -3.81%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -4.65%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 09:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.65%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-29 00:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.39%EV -4.05%E -3.19%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.61%EV -4.89%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-29 18:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.39%EV -4.05%E -3.19%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.61%EV -4.89%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-29 18:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -6.32%E -5.09%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -5.87%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-29 06:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.80%EV -2.54%E -1.97%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.20%EV -6.36%E -1.66%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-29 18:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.35%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.65%EV -6.60%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-28 11:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.05%E -3.19%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.09%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 07:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.05%E -3.19%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.09%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 07:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.05%E -3.19%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.09%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 07:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.05%E -3.19%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.09%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 07:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.05%E -3.19%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.09%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 07:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.05%E -3.19%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.09%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 07:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -4.81%E -3.81%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -7.09%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-29 07:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.09%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 07:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.09%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 11:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.09%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-28 19:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -2.54%E -1.97%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -8.31%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-28 11:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.31%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-29 18:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.32%E -5.09%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -8.31%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-29 07:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -7.07%E -5.75%K -30.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -8.31%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-29 09:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -7.07%E -5.75%K -30.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -8.31%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-29 09:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.83%E -6.42%K -35.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.31%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-28 17:03 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-29 17:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -4.05%E -3.19%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -14.43%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-29 17:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -14.43%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-28 11:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -14.43%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-28 11:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -5.56%E -4.45%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -14.43%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-28 11:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -4.81%E -3.81%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -15.65%E -4.54%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-29 14:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74% | 2.2% | 2026-09-29 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74% | 2.2% | 2026-09-29 18:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 18:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55% | 8.6% | 2026-09-29 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 81.08% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 18.92% | 17.5% | 2026-09-29 18:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.36% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.34% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30% | 11.0% | 2026-09-29 14:00 |