Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia Basket v Maccabi Tel Aviv

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 18:30 UTC

Final: Valencia Basket 88–91 Maccabi Tel Aviv

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

74%

26%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia Basket (Local)

Prediction 74.08%1.35fair odd

EV +2.23%

Edge +1.62%

Kelly +5.88%

Growth +0.131%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.38%73.91%73.96%76.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.191.281.271.3884.03%78.16%78.43%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maccabi Tel Aviv (Visit)

Prediction 25.92%3.86fair odd

EV +2.38%

Edge +0.601%

Kelly +0.805%

Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.89%26.09%26.04%32.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.853.593.653.9535.09%27.82%27.43%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valencia Basket (Local): 74.08%; Maccabi Tel Aviv (Visit): 25.92%. For Maccabi Tel Aviv (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.38%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Neds🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV +2.23%E +1.62%K +5.88%G +0.131%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -26.13%E -9.17%K -14.13%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-15 16:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV +2.23%E +1.62%K +5.88%G +0.131%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -26.13%E -9.17%K -14.13%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-15 16:55
BetMGM🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV +0.011%E +0.008%K +0.032%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -17.06%E -5.33%K -7.76%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 17:00
1xBet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.58%EV -1.47%E -1.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%	3.52I 28.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.77%E -2.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-10-15 18:00
Coral🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -1.47%E -1.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -22.25%E -7.42%K -11.12%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-10-15 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -2.95%E -2.25%K -9.52%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-15 18:29
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.79%EV -3.69%E -2.84%K -12.31%G +0.000%	3.66I 27.32%NM 26.21%EV -5.14%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-15 18:24
GTbets🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.63%EV -3.69%E -2.84%K -12.31%G +0.000%	3.63I 27.55%NM 26.37%EV -5.92%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-15 18:10
Coolbet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.69%E -2.84%K -12.31%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.99%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 18:24
Betway🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.69%E -2.84%K -12.31%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-14 15:44
TAB🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -3.69%E -2.84%K -12.31%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -14.47%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-10-15 17:05
Pinnacle🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.29%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-15 18:20
Bovada🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.29%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-14 20:39
DraftKings🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.29%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.10%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-15 18:24
William Hill🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.29%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 10:35
888sport🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.29%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 10:35
888sport (SE)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.29%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 10:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.29%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 10:35
Fanatics🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.29%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-15 18:22
BetUS🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.29%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -15.77%E -4.85%K -7.01%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-10-15 16:44
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.48%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV +1.08%E +0.277%K +0.372%G +0.004%	3.8%	2026-10-15 15:34
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.48%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -1.51%E -0.398%K -0.540%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-15 14:14
PlayUp🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.48%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-15 16:54
ReBet🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.91%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-15 14:15
BetRivers🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.91%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-15 14:14
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.91%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-15 14:15
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.91%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-15 14:15
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.91%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-15 14:15
ATG (SE)🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.91%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-15 14:15
Svenska Spel🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.91%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-15 14:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.91%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-15 14:14
Betsson🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -6.66%E -5.28%K -25.60%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -0.217%E -0.056%K -0.076%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 14:14
NordicBet🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -6.66%E -5.28%K -25.60%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -0.217%E -0.056%K -0.076%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 14:15
Unibet🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.66%E -5.28%K -25.60%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-15 14:15
TABtouch🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.66%E -5.28%K -25.60%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-15 14:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.66%E -5.28%K -25.60%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-15 14:14
theScore Bet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.59%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -1.51%E -0.398%K -0.540%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-15 14:15
BoyleSports🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.59%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-15 14:14
Codere (IT)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.59%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -7.99%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-10-15 14:20
picklebet_au🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.59%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -7.99%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-10-15 17:35
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.59%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -7.99%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-10-15 14:18
SportsBet🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -8.14%E -6.56%K -33.91%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV +2.38%E +0.601%K +0.805%G +0.019%	6.0%	2026-10-15 14:15
FanDuel🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -8.14%E -6.56%K -33.91%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -1.51%E -0.398%K -0.540%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-15 14:15
Paddy Power🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.62%E -7.88%K -43.73%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-15 14:14
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 72.71%EV -9.62%E -7.88%K -43.73%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 27.29%EV -15.77%E -4.85%K -7.01%G +0.000%	12.7%	2026-10-15 14:15
PMU (FR)🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 74.63%EV -11.84%E -9.95%K -62.33%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%	12.6%	2026-10-15 14:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81%	3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19%	0.5%	2026-10-15 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%	0.8%	2026-10-15 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%	0.8%	2026-10-15 17:55
Matchbook◎	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%	3.6%	2026-10-15 18:20
Smarkets◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%	4.3%	2026-10-15 17:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 65.98%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.04%	15.00I 6.67%NM 5.98%	11.4%	2026-10-15 16:55