The School of Odds
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Valencia Basket v Hapoel Tel Aviv

Kickoff: 2026-10-08 18:30 UTC

Final: Valencia Basket 93–82 Hapoel Tel Aviv

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia Basket (Local)

Prediction 47.42%2.11fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%47.47%47.51%48.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.971.972.0655.56%50.64%50.76%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hapoel Tel Aviv (Visit)

Prediction 52.58%1.90fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.32%52.53%52.49%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.791.801.8560.98%55.85%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valencia Basket (Local): 47.42%; Hapoel Tel Aviv (Visit): 52.58%. For Valencia Basket (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.06, with an expected value of -2.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -2.31%E -1.12%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -4.83%E -2.67%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-05 09:35
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.79%E -1.36%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-05 09:30
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.79%E -1.36%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-05 09:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.79%E -1.36%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-05 09:29
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-05 09:29
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-05 09:30
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.31%E -2.37%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-05 09:30
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.31%E -2.37%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-05 09:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-05 09:30
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.04%E -5.23%K -12.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 08:30
ReBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -6.58%E -3.34%K -6.78%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -6.41%E -3.60%K -8.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 09:30
SportsBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.33%EV -6.58%E -3.34%K -6.78%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -6.94%E -3.92%K -9.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-05 09:30
GTbets🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.01%EV -7.05%E -3.60%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.99%EV -4.83%E -2.67%K -5.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -7.05%E -3.60%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -7.46%E -4.24%K -9.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 09:30
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -2.73%E -1.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 09:30
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 09:30
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 09:30
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 09:30
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.42%E -4.93%K -10.36%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-05 09:28
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.42%E -4.93%K -10.36%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-05 09:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.42%E -4.93%K -10.36%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-05 09:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.67%EV -14.64%E -8.13%K -18.30%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 52.33%EV -13.77%E -8.40%K -21.52%G +0.000%16.5%2026-10-05 09:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 50.00%1.10I 90.91%NM 50.00%81.8%2026-10-04 06:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 50.00%1.10I 90.91%NM 50.00%81.8%2026-10-04 06:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 50.00%1.10I 90.91%NM 50.00%81.8%2026-10-04 06:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.86%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.98%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.16%11.4%2026-10-05 13:15