The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Saski Baskonia v Real Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 20:00 UTC

Final: Saski Baskonia 86–104 Real Madrid

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Saski Baskonia (Local)

Prediction 22.89%4.37fair odd
EV +3.02%
Edge +0.671%
Kelly +0.863%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.63%23.02%22.86%27.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.074.004.5029.41%24.58%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 77.11%1.30fair odd
EV -0.533%
Edge -0.413%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.96%76.98%77.14%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.231.2985.47%81.68%81.30%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Saski Baskonia (Local): 22.89%; Real Madrid (Visit): 77.11%. For Saski Baskonia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.02%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coral🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +3.02%E +0.671%K +0.863%G +0.026%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -9.79%E -8.36%K -57.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-26 16:10
BetMGM🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +3.02%E +0.671%K +0.863%G +0.026%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -9.79%E -8.36%K -57.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-27 12:25
1xBet🎯4.36I 22.94%NM 22.14%EV -0.183%E -0.042%K -0.055%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.86%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-27 19:35
Unibet (UK)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.18%EV -0.412%E -0.095%K -0.123%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.82%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-27 19:10
Marathon Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 22.12%EV -0.870%E -0.201%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.88%EV -5.16%E -4.19%K -22.43%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-27 19:34
NordicBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.56%E -0.362%K -0.472%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.93%E -4.86%K -26.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 15:50
Betsson🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.56%E -0.362%K -0.472%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.93%E -4.86%K -26.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 15:49
LowVig.ag🎯4.27I 23.42%NM 22.50%EV -2.24%E -0.525%K -0.686%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.50%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-27 19:40
BetOnline.ag🎯4.27I 23.42%NM 22.50%EV -2.24%E -0.525%K -0.686%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.50%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-27 19:39
Bovada🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -2.70%E -0.636%K -0.831%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-27 19:39
Betway🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.70%E -0.636%K -0.831%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.93%E -4.86%K -26.96%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-27 19:40
GTbets🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -2.70%E -0.636%K -0.831%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -7.47%E -6.23%K -37.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 19:40
Coolbet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.85%E -0.916%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.16%E -4.19%K -22.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 19:40
ReBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.85%E -0.916%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.16%E -4.19%K -22.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 14:25
888sport🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.85%E -0.916%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.93%E -4.86%K -26.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 14:25
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.85%E -0.916%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.93%E -4.86%K -26.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 14:24
888sport (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.85%E -0.916%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.93%E -4.86%K -26.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.85%E -0.916%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.93%E -4.86%K -26.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 14:25
Pinnacle🎯4.17I 23.98%NM 23.06%EV -4.53%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.94%EV -3.62%E -2.89%K -14.47%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-27 19:55
SportsBet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -4.99%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.93%E -4.86%K -26.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-27 17:00
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.62%E -2.89%K -14.47%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-27 19:34
BoyleSports🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.93%E -4.86%K -26.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-27 02:05
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.70%E -5.54%K -31.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 19:50
Unibet (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 14:25
Unibet (NL)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 14:25
BetRivers🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 14:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 14:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 19:10
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.16%E -4.19%K -22.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-27 14:25
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.16%E -4.19%K -22.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-27 14:25
theScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.93%E -4.86%K -26.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 19:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.47%E -6.23%K -37.36%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-26 16:10
Neds🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.47%E -6.23%K -37.36%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-26 16:10
picklebet_au🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -9.57%E -2.42%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.55%EV -6.70%E -5.54%K -31.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-27 19:15
Codere (IT)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -9.57%E -2.42%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.55%EV -6.70%E -5.54%K -31.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-27 14:25
MyBookie.ag🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -9.57%E -2.42%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.55%EV -6.70%E -5.54%K -31.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-27 14:28
FanDuel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -10.71%E -2.75%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -5.16%E -4.19%K -22.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 16:55
TAB🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -10.71%E -2.75%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -5.16%E -4.19%K -22.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 17:00
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -11.86%E -3.08%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -5.93%E -4.86%K -26.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-27 19:45
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -14.15%E -3.77%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.93%E -4.86%K -26.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-27 16:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -14.15%E -3.77%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -9.79%E -8.36%K -57.56%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-27 14:25
Winamax (DE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -16.44%E -4.50%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -0.533%E -0.413%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-27 19:10
Winamax (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -22.16%E -6.52%K -9.23%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -2.85%E -2.26%K -10.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-27 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%EV -22.16%E -6.52%K -9.23%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 74.40%EV -9.79%E -8.36%K -57.56%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-27 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60%1.5%2026-10-27 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60%1.5%2026-10-27 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60%1.5%2026-10-27 19:55
Smarkets◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%1.26I 79.37%NM 77.74%2.1%2026-10-27 19:40
Matchbook◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74%1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26%2.2%2026-10-27 19:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.80%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.46%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.75%10.8%2026-10-27 12:25