The School of Odds
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Real Madrid v KK Partizan NIS

Kickoff: 2026-10-08 18:45 UTC

Final: Real Madrid 86–76 KK Partizan NIS

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Madrid (Local)

Prediction 79.24%1.26fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -7.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.85%79.19%79.27%80.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.191.191.2488.50%83.97%84.39%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KK Partizan NIS (Visit)

Prediction 20.76%4.82fair odd
EV +1.71%
Edge +0.350%
Kelly +0.439%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.41%20.81%20.73%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.554.444.504.9028.17%22.50%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 79.24%; KK Partizan NIS (Visit): 20.76%. For KK Partizan NIS (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.82. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.71%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -6.49%E -5.50%K -36.08%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV +1.71%E +0.350%K +0.439%G +0.008%5.2%2026-10-05 13:51
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.91%E -4.09%K -24.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.40%E -0.295%K -0.374%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-05 13:50
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -5.70%E -4.79%K -30.01%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -2.44%E -0.519%K -0.659%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 11:45
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -5.70%E -4.79%K -30.01%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -2.44%E -0.519%K -0.659%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 11:45
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.90%EV -7.29%E -6.23%K -42.86%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -3.48%E -0.748%K -0.952%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 12:39
BetMGM🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.91%E -4.09%K -24.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.51%E -0.981%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-05 07:20
Coolbet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.12%E -3.40%K -19.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.59%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-05 08:35
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.91%E -4.09%K -24.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.59%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-04 14:30
Fanatics🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.49%E -5.50%K -36.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.59%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 11:50
ReBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.49%E -5.50%K -36.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.59%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 11:45
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.29%E -6.23%K -42.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.59%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 12:39
BoyleSports🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.29%E -6.23%K -42.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.59%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-05 11:43
GTbets🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.90%EV -5.70%E -4.79%K -30.01%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.10%EV -7.63%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 09:10
DraftKings🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -2.53%E -2.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -8.67%E -1.97%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-05 08:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.49%E -5.50%K -36.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.67%E -1.97%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-05 11:45
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.86%EV -1.74%E -1.40%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.14%EV -9.50%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-05 08:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.88%EV -2.53%E -2.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.12%EV -10.12%E -2.34%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-05 08:35
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -6.49%E -5.50%K -36.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -10.12%E -2.34%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 07:20
Neds🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -6.49%E -5.50%K -36.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -10.12%E -2.34%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 07:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -6.49%E -5.50%K -36.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -10.12%E -2.34%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 07:20
TAB🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.32%E -2.72%K -15.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -16.97%E -4.24%K -5.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 09:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 75.85%EV -10.46%E -9.25%K -80.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.15%EV -26.31%E -7.41%K -10.32%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-05 11:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 73.49%2.80I 35.71%NM 26.51%34.7%2026-10-04 06:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 73.49%2.80I 35.71%NM 26.51%34.7%2026-10-04 06:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 73.49%2.80I 35.71%NM 26.51%34.7%2026-10-04 06:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.75%10.8%2026-10-05 13:40