La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Real Madrid v Hapoel Tel Aviv
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Real Madrid (Local)
Predicción 71.96%1.39momio equitativo
EV -2.86%
Ventaja -2.11%
Kelly -8.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.35
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
69.35%72.01%71.90%73.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.281.321.321.3578.13%75.87%75.76%74.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Hapoel Tel Aviv (Visitante)
Predicción 28.04%3.57momio equitativo
EV +0.947%
Ventaja +0.263%
Kelly +0.364%
Crecimiento +0.003%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.23%27.99%28.10%30.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.013.353.383.6033.22%29.83%29.63%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
1 corredor ofrece un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.89%E -6.17%K -28.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +0.947%E +0.263%K +0.364%G +0.003% | 5.9% | 2026-05-01 18:30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.01%E -3.80%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -1.86%E -0.531%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-01 18:30 |
| FanDuel | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.45%E -4.96%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.86%E -0.531%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 18:30 |
| Betway | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.45%E -4.96%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.86%E -0.531%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 18:25 |
| Betsson | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.45%E -4.96%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.86%E -0.531%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 18:30 |
| NordicBet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.45%E -4.96%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.86%E -0.531%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 18:30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.29%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71%EV -2.70%E -0.778%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-01 18:40 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.01%E -3.80%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -3.26%E -0.945%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-01 18:30 |
| 1xBet | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.97%EV -3.57%E -2.67%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.03%EV -3.54%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-01 18:19 |
| ReBet | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.42%EV -5.73%E -4.38%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.58%EV -3.54%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-01 18:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.00%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 28.00%EV -4.10%E -1.20%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-01 18:19 |
| DraftKings | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.57%E -2.67%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -4.66%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-01 18:19 |
| Unibet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.66%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 17:24 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.66%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 17:25 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.66%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 17:24 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.66%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 17:24 |
| BetMGM | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.66%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 18:24 |
| Bovada | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.66%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.66%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 17:24 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.66%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 17:24 |
| Everygame | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.45%E -4.96%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.66%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-01 18:29 |
| BoyleSports | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.45%E -4.96%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.66%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-01 18:30 |
| theScore Bet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.17%E -5.56%K -24.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -4.66%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-01 18:20 |
| Coolbet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -6.06%E -1.81%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 05:50 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%EV -2.86%E -2.11%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV -6.34%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-01 18:05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%EV -2.86%E -2.11%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV -6.34%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-01 18:10 |
| GTbets | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.49%EV -5.01%E -3.80%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 28.51%EV -7.19%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-01 18:25 |
| William Hill | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -2.86%E -2.11%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-01 15:24 |
| BetRivers | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 17:25 |
| 888sport | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 14:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 14:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 14:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.01%E -3.80%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-01 17:25 |
| TABtouch | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.01%E -3.80%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-01 17:24 |
| Fanatics | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.73%E -4.38%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-01 08:24 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.73%E -4.38%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-01 18:14 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -7.17%E -5.56%K -24.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-01 18:30 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.65%EV -7.17%E -5.56%K -24.73%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.35%EV -8.59%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-01 18:29 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.45%E -4.96%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -8.87%E -2.73%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-01 17:24 |
| Paddy Power | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -7.17%E -5.56%K -24.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -8.87%E -2.73%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-01 18:19 |
| PlayUp | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -10.27%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-01 18:30 |
| TAB | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.01%E -3.80%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -10.27%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 18:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.45%E -4.96%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -10.27%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-01 18:25 |
| Neds | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.45%E -4.96%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -10.27%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-01 18:24 |
| Coral | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.45%E -4.96%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -10.27%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-01 18:25 |
| BetUS | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.35%EV -4.29%E -3.23%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 30.65%EV -15.60%E -5.18%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-01 18:30 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-05-01 18:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-05-01 18:40 |
| Smarkets | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.00% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00% | 1.5% | 2026-05-01 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.73% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.27% | 1.9% | 2026-05-01 18:40 |
| Matchbook | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83% | 3.5% | 2026-05-01 18:40 |
Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (1)
Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.
| Corredor | Opción 1 | Opción 2 | Opción 3 | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.57% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.99% | 11.3% | 2026-05-01 18:25 |