The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Real Madrid v Fenerbahce SK

Kickoff: 2026-10-29 19:47 UTC

Final: Real Madrid 95–76 Fenerbahce SK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Madrid (Local)

Prediction 67.31%1.49fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -5.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.75%67.27%67.41%68.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.411.401.4575.76%71.12%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fenerbahce SK (Visit)

Prediction 32.69%3.06fair odd
EV +0.357%
Edge +0.116%
Kelly +0.173%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.21%32.73%32.59%36.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.852.853.0739.22%35.03%35.09%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 67.31%; Fenerbahce SK (Visit): 32.69%. For Fenerbahce SK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.07, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.357%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV +0.357%E +0.116%K +0.173%G +0.001%4.0%2026-10-29 19:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV +0.357%E +0.116%K +0.173%G +0.001%4.0%2026-10-29 19:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -0.296%E -0.097%K -0.145%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-29 19:35
SportsBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -7.78%E -5.68%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -1.28%E -0.423%K -0.632%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-29 19:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.42%E -3.11%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.93%E -0.644%K -0.965%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-29 19:40
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.93%E -0.644%K -0.965%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-29 19:30
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -4.42%E -3.11%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -2.58%E -0.867%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-29 19:40
ReBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11%EV -3.24%E -1.09%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-29 19:40
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.42%E -3.11%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-29 19:35
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 19:40
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 19:35
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -7.78%E -5.68%K -21.04%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -4.55%E -1.56%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-29 19:40
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.20%E -1.79%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-29 18:44
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.20%E -1.79%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-29 18:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.20%E -1.79%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-29 18:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.20%E -1.79%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-29 18:45
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.20%E -1.79%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-29 19:40
GTbets🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.37%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.63%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-29 19:30
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -2.40%E -1.66%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49%EV -5.85%E -2.03%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-29 17:55
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.85%E -2.03%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-29 19:39
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -5.85%E -2.03%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-29 09:48
MyBookie.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -5.85%E -2.03%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-29 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.51%EV -3.07%E -2.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.49%EV -6.51%E -2.28%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-29 17:54
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.07%E -2.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-29 19:40
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-29 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-29 05:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-29 05:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-29 05:55
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-29 05:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-29 05:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-29 05:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.42%E -3.11%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 05:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-29 19:40
picklebet_au🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -7.11%E -5.15%K -18.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-29 19:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -7.11%E -5.15%K -18.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-29 19:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-29 19:35
Unibet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -5.09%E -3.61%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -8.47%E -3.02%K -4.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-29 05:55
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -5.09%E -3.61%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -8.47%E -3.02%K -4.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-29 05:55
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.47%E -3.02%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-29 19:40
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.40%E -1.66%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.10%E -3.67%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 18:15
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -4.42%E -3.11%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.10%E -3.67%K -5.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-29 18:05
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -4.42%E -3.11%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.10%E -3.67%K -5.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-29 19:40
BetUS🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.70%EV -4.42%E -3.11%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.30%EV -11.08%E -4.07%K -6.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-29 19:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.42%EV -9.80%E -7.32%K -28.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.58%EV -13.37%E -5.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-29 05:55
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -14.35%E -5.48%K -8.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-29 18:15
Neds🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -2.40%E -1.66%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -16.64%E -6.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-29 18:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -2.40%E -1.66%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -16.64%E -6.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-29 18:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 65.89%EV -11.15%E -8.45%K -34.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -16.64%E -6.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-29 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.2%2026-10-29 19:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.2%2026-10-29 19:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.2%2026-10-29 19:40
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%2.2%2026-10-29 19:40
Matchbook◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%2.2%2026-10-29 19:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.89%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%11.0%2026-10-29 18:15