The School of Odds
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Real Madrid v ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 19:00 UTC

Final: Real Madrid 111–92 ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Madrid (Local)

Prediction 84.04%1.19fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -9.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.99%83.94%84.27%85.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.131.121.1793.46%88.86%89.29%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit)

Prediction 15.96%6.27fair odd
EV +7.72%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.34%
Growth +0.104%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.23%16.06%15.73%21.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.845.806.7522.73%17.11%17.24%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 84.04%; ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit): 15.96%. For ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.27. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.72%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -5.87%E -5.24%K -48.95%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV +7.72%E +1.14%K +1.34%G +0.104%4.1%2026-10-15 16:04
1xBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.40%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.72%G +0.000%6.61I 15.13%NM 14.60%EV +5.49%E +0.830%K +0.978%G +0.054%3.6%2026-10-15 16:50
ReBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.87%E -5.24%K -48.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +3.73%E +0.574%K +0.678%G +0.025%4.7%2026-10-15 15:10
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.73%E +0.574%K +0.678%G +0.025%5.5%2026-10-15 15:00
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.73%E +0.574%K +0.678%G +0.025%5.5%2026-10-15 15:00
888sport🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.73%E +0.574%K +0.678%G +0.025%5.5%2026-10-15 15:49
William Hill🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.73%E +0.574%K +0.678%G +0.025%5.5%2026-10-15 15:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.73%E +0.574%K +0.678%G +0.025%5.5%2026-10-15 15:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.73%E +0.574%K +0.678%G +0.025%5.5%2026-10-15 15:49
TAB🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -8.39%E -7.70%K -93.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV +3.73%E +0.574%K +0.678%G +0.025%7.1%2026-10-15 17:45
SportsBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.04%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -0.258%E -0.041%K -0.049%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-15 17:20
Fanatics🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.04%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -1.06%E -0.170%K -0.203%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-15 18:55
Coolbet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.72%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -2.65%E -0.435%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-15 18:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.72%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.25%E -0.708%K -0.850%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-15 15:49
Betway🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.87%E -5.24%K -48.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.25%E -0.708%K -0.850%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 17:49
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -4.25%E -0.708%K -0.850%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-15 17:20
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -4.25%E -0.708%K -0.850%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-15 17:20
BoyleSports🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -4.25%E -0.708%K -0.850%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-15 15:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.71%E -6.05%K -61.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -4.25%E -0.708%K -0.850%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-15 13:29
GTbets🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -5.87%E -5.24%K -48.95%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -5.84%E -0.990%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-15 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -7.55%E -6.87%K -75.55%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -7.44%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-15 15:05
picklebet_au🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -7.55%E -6.87%K -75.55%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -7.44%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-15 18:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -7.55%E -6.87%K -75.55%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -7.44%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-15 15:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV -3.35%E -2.92%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV -8.08%E -1.40%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 15:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV -3.35%E -2.92%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV -8.08%E -1.40%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.24%E -1.43%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 18:45
BetRivers🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.24%E -1.43%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 18:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.24%E -1.43%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.24%E -1.43%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 18:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.24%E -1.43%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 18:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.24%E -1.43%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 18:45
TABtouch🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -8.24%E -1.43%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -8.24%E -1.43%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 18:45
Unibet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.03%E -4.45%K -38.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -8.24%E -1.43%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 18:44
theScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.87%E -5.24%K -48.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -8.24%E -1.43%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 15:45
DraftKings🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -3.35%E -2.92%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV -9.04%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-15 17:50
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.87%EV -2.51%E -2.17%K -15.70%G +0.000%5.61I 17.83%NM 17.13%EV -10.47%E -1.87%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 17:50
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.35%E -2.92%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -12.23%E -2.22%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 17:44
BetMGM🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -2.51%E -2.17%K -15.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -16.22%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 16:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 82.93%EV -10.08%E -9.42%K -143.94%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.07%EV -17.01%E -3.27%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-15 18:45
PlayUp🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -3.35%E -2.92%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -20.21%E -4.04%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 17:19
Coral🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -4.19%E -3.68%K -29.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -20.21%E -4.04%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 16:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 81.17%EV -8.39%E -7.70%K -93.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.83%EV -24.99%E -5.32%K -6.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-15 15:50
Neds🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -1.67%E -1.43%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -29.78%E -6.77%K -8.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-15 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -1.67%E -1.43%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -29.78%E -6.77%K -8.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-15 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57%0.4%2026-10-15 18:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-10-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-10-15 18:55
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.66%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34%1.8%2026-10-15 18:15
Matchbook◎1.15I 86.96%NM 84.35%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.65%3.1%2026-10-15 18:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%9.3%2026-10-15 16:30