The School of Odds
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Paris Basketball v ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne

Kickoff: 2026-10-07 18:45 UTC

Final: Paris Basketball 96–98 ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Paris Basketball (Local)

Prediction 66.86%1.50fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -5.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.99%66.86%66.67%68.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.411.401.4675.76%71.04%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit)

Prediction 33.14%3.02fair odd
EV +0.741%
Edge +0.244%
Kelly +0.363%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.53%33.14%33.33%35.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.832.853.0440.82%35.35%35.09%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Paris Basketball (Local): 66.86%; ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit): 33.14%. For ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.741%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.47%EV -6.39%E -4.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.53%EV +0.741%E +0.244%K +0.363%G +0.003%4.3%2026-10-03 14:15
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -5.06%E -3.56%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.24%E -0.760%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-05 11:15
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -5.06%E -3.56%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.24%E -0.760%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-05 11:15
FanDuel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -5.73%E -4.06%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV -2.57%E -0.875%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-05 11:40
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.83%EV -7.73%E -5.60%K -20.34%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.17%EV -3.57%E -1.23%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 11:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.06%E -3.56%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.90%E -1.34%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-05 11:15
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.39%E -4.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.90%E -1.34%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 18:50
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.39%E -4.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.90%E -1.34%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.39%E -4.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.90%E -1.34%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.39%E -4.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.90%E -1.34%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 18:55
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -3.05%E -2.10%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49%EV -4.56%E -1.58%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-05 13:54
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.07%E -6.67%K -25.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -4.56%E -1.58%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-29 18:30
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.72%E -2.58%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -5.56%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-05 08:10
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.39%E -3.07%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.56%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 11:14
GTbets🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.82%EV -5.73%E -4.06%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.18%EV -5.89%E -2.07%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-05 08:54
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -2.38%E -1.63%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -7.21%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-05 09:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.39%E -4.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.21%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 11:14
ReBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.39%E -4.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.21%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 11:40
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.39%E -4.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.21%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 11:14
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.72%E -2.58%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 12:30
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.39%E -4.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 11:20
TAB🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.72%E -2.58%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 13:19
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.39%E -4.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-05 08:10
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.39%E -4.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-05 08:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.39%E -4.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-05 08:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 64.99%EV -11.74%E -8.90%K -36.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.01%EV -18.81%E -7.68%K -12.97%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-05 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 54.17%1.30I 76.92%NM 45.83%67.8%2026-10-04 06:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 54.17%1.30I 76.92%NM 45.83%67.8%2026-10-04 06:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 54.17%1.30I 76.92%NM 45.83%67.8%2026-10-04 06:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.02%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.12%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%12.0%2026-10-05 13:15