The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Panathinaikos v Fenerbahce SK

Kickoff: 2026-10-08 18:15 UTC

Final: Panathinaikos 92–74 Fenerbahce SK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Panathinaikos (Local)

Prediction 62.35%1.60fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -4.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.94%62.28%62.45%63.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.511.521.5670.92%66.23%66.01%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fenerbahce SK (Visit)

Prediction 37.65%2.66fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.91%37.72%37.55%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.482.502.5645.45%40.30%40.00%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Panathinaikos (Local): 62.35%; Fenerbahce SK (Visit): 37.65%. For Panathinaikos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.56, with an expected value of -2.73%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -2.73%E -1.75%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -4.75%E -1.88%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-05 14:39
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.73%E -1.75%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-05 08:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.82%EV -3.36%E -2.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.18%EV -5.50%E -2.19%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-05 08:35
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.36%E -2.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-05 08:50
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -4.37%E -1.72%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 12:14
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -5.12%E -2.03%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-05 08:50
FanDuel🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -5.23%E -3.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -3.62%E -1.41%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-05 09:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.23%E -3.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.00%E -1.57%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-05 08:39
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.23%E -3.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.00%E -1.57%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-05 08:40
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.23%E -3.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.00%E -1.57%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-05 08:40
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.23%E -3.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.76%E -3.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 12:14
GTbets🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -5.85%E -3.87%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -6.63%E -2.67%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 09:20
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 08:38
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 08:40
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 08:39
ReBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -7.01%E -2.84%K -4.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 09:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.76%E -3.17%K -5.35%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-05 09:25
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.09%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.08%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.91%EV -4.75%E -1.88%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 09:25
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -9.64%E -4.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-05 12:14
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -9.64%E -4.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-05 12:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -9.64%E -4.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-05 12:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 60.94%EV -12.09%E -8.57%K -29.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.06%EV -17.17%E -7.81%K -14.31%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-05 09:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 53.94%1.30I 76.92%NM 46.06%67.0%2026-10-05 12:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 53.94%1.30I 76.92%NM 46.06%67.0%2026-10-05 12:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 53.94%1.30I 76.92%NM 46.06%67.0%2026-10-05 12:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.96%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.49%11.3%2026-10-05 13:15