Language:English
Panathinaikos v ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Panathinaikos (Local)
Prediction 84.58%1.18fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -11.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.30%84.43%84.60%86.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.121.121.1694.34%89.38%89.29%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit)
Prediction 15.42%6.49fair odd
EV +13.78%
Edge +1.87%
Kelly +2.16%
Growth +0.298%
assuming max odds 7.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.07%15.57%15.40%18.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.976.007.3820.00%16.76%16.67%13.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Panathinaikos (Local): 84.58%; ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit): 15.42%. For ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.49. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.78%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.93%EV -6.11%E -5.51%K -55.57%G +0.000% | 7.38I 13.55%NM 13.07%EV +13.78%E +1.87%K +2.16%G +0.298% | 3.6% | 2026-09-30 17:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.21%EV -5.27%E -4.70%K -43.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.79%EV +7.92%E +1.13%K +1.32%G +0.105% | 3.6% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.11%E -5.51%K -55.57%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.212%E +0.033%K +0.039%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 14:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.11%E -5.51%K -55.57%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.212%E +0.033%K +0.039%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 14:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.11%E -5.51%K -55.57%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.212%E +0.033%K +0.039%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 14:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.11%E -5.51%K -55.57%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.212%E +0.033%K +0.039%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.96%E -6.33%K -69.59%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +0.212%E +0.033%K +0.039%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.96%E -6.33%K -69.59%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +0.212%E +0.033%K +0.039%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.27%E -4.70%K -43.89%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.64%E -0.583%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.27%E -4.70%K -43.89%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.64%E -0.583%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -6.96%E -6.33%K -69.59%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -3.64%E -0.583%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -6.96%E -6.33%K -69.59%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -3.64%E -0.583%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -6.11%E -5.51%K -55.57%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -4.41%E -0.712%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.48%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -34.01%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.52%EV -5.18%E -0.843%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.72%EV -6.96%E -6.33%K -69.59%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV -5.95%E -0.976%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -34.01%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-30 16:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -34.01%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-30 16:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -34.01%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-30 16:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -34.01%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-30 16:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -34.01%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-30 16:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -34.01%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-30 16:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.27%E -4.70%K -43.89%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 14:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.27%E -4.70%K -43.89%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 16:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.11%E -5.51%K -55.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-30 16:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.11%E -5.51%K -55.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-30 16:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.11%E -5.51%K -55.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-30 16:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.11%E -5.51%K -55.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.96%E -6.33%K -69.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -7.50%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.18%EV -7.80%E -7.16%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -10.58%E -1.82%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.27%E -4.70%K -43.89%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -11.35%E -1.97%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-30 17:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.14%EV -1.88%E -1.62%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 5.72I 17.48%NM 16.86%EV -11.81%E -2.07%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-30 17:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -6.11%E -5.51%K -55.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -13.66%E -2.44%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -6.11%E -5.51%K -55.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -13.66%E -2.44%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-30 18:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -2.73%E -2.37%K -18.20%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -15.21%E -2.76%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-30 17:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.84%EV -10.34%E -9.76%K -172.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.16%EV -15.21%E -2.76%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-30 16:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.35%EV -3.58%E -3.14%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 5.32I 18.80%NM 17.65%EV -17.98%E -3.38%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -2.73%E -2.37%K -18.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -22.91%E -4.58%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -2.73%E -2.37%K -18.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -22.91%E -4.58%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -3.58%E -3.14%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -22.91%E -4.58%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -3.58%E -3.14%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -22.91%E -4.58%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -3.58%E -3.14%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -22.91%E -4.58%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.6% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.6% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.6% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42% | 4.6% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.13% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.87% | 9.7% | 2026-09-30 18:14 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.50% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30% | 10.8% | 2026-09-30 18:10 |