The School of Odds
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Maccabi Tel Aviv v Real Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 18:05 UTC

Final: Maccabi Tel Aviv 99–113 Real Madrid

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maccabi Tel Aviv (Local)

Prediction 38.06%2.63fair odd
EV +4.67%
Edge +1.70%
Kelly +2.67%
Growth +0.125%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%37.93%37.98%39.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.492.502.7545.45%40.15%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 61.94%1.61fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -3.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.61%62.07%62.02%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.521.521.5871.43%65.91%65.79%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maccabi Tel Aviv (Local): 38.06%; Real Madrid (Visit): 61.94%. For Maccabi Tel Aviv (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.67%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +4.67%E +1.70%K +2.67%G +0.125%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -10.19%E -7.03%K -22.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 18:00
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV +2.77%E +1.03%K +1.63%G +0.045%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -8.33%E -5.63%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-22 17:28
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -0.274%E -0.105%K -0.169%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -13.29%E -9.49%K -33.22%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 18:00
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.04%E -0.398%K -0.647%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 16:29
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.04%E -0.398%K -0.647%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.04%E -0.398%K -0.647%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 16:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.04%E -0.398%K -0.647%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -2.56%E -0.999%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%EV -3.38%E -2.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-22 18:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -2.56%E -0.999%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%EV -3.38%E -2.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-22 18:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -2.94%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -4.00%E -2.58%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-22 17:55
1xBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -2.94%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -4.00%E -2.58%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-22 17:55
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -2.94%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.86%E -3.85%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -2.94%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.86%E -3.85%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 17:55
Neds🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -2.94%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -10.19%E -7.03%K -22.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -2.94%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -10.19%E -7.03%K -22.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 18:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.84%EV -3.70%E -1.46%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.16%EV -4.62%E -3.00%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-22 17:55
SportsBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -4.08%E -1.62%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -6.48%E -4.29%K -12.70%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-22 17:55
ReBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV -4.62%E -3.00%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-22 17:55
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.38%E -2.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-22 17:55
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.00%E -2.58%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-22 18:00
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.24%E -3.42%K -9.88%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 17:55
GTbets🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -6.48%E -4.29%K -12.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-22 16:35
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 18:00
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 16:35
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 18:00
BetUS🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.75%EV -5.22%E -2.10%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.25%EV -6.48%E -4.29%K -12.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-22 18:00
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -5.60%E -2.26%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -5.86%E -3.85%K -11.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 17:55
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -5.60%E -2.26%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -5.86%E -3.85%K -11.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 17:55
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.01%EV -5.98%E -2.42%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -2.14%E -1.35%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-22 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.24%E -3.42%K -9.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-22 17:55
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.86%E -3.85%K -11.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 18:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -8.33%E -5.63%K -17.36%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-22 17:55
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.51%E -3.09%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.38%E -2.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.51%E -3.09%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.38%E -2.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.51%E -3.09%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.38%E -2.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.51%E -3.09%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.38%E -2.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 16:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.51%E -3.09%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.38%E -2.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.51%E -3.09%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.38%E -2.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 16:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -7.51%E -3.09%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -4.00%E -2.58%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-22 16:30
FanDuel🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -7.89%E -3.26%K -5.55%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -5.86%E -3.85%K -11.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-22 17:55
picklebet_au🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.36%EV -8.27%E -3.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.64%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.36%EV -8.27%E -3.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.64%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 18:00
MyBookie.ag🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.36%EV -8.27%E -3.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.64%EV -7.09%E -4.73%K -14.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 17:59
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.38%E -2.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 17:55
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -4.62%E -3.00%K -8.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 16:30
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -4.62%E -3.00%K -8.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 16:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.87%EV -13.22%E -5.80%K -10.32%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.13%EV -10.19%E -7.03%K -22.65%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-22 16:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.23%EV -16.26%E -7.39%K -13.55%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 60.77%EV -12.05%E -8.49%K -28.69%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-22 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61%0.2%2026-10-22 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61%0.2%2026-10-22 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61%0.2%2026-10-22 18:00
Smarkets◎2.56I 39.06%NM 37.41%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.59%4.4%2026-10-22 17:55
Matchbook◎2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%4.8%2026-10-22 17:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.89%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%11.0%2026-10-22 18:00