The School of Odds
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Hapoel Tel Aviv v Virtus Segafredo Bologna

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 16:00 UTC

Final: Hapoel Tel Aviv 90–81 Virtus Segafredo Bologna

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local)

Prediction 73.11%1.37fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -8.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.14%73.21%73.20%74.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.291.291.3382.64%77.62%77.52%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit)

Prediction 26.89%3.72fair odd
EV +2.45%
Edge +0.642%
Kelly +0.871%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 3.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.15%26.79%26.80%29.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.493.553.8133.90%28.65%28.17%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local): 73.11%; Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit): 26.89%. For Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.81, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.45%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.71%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.29%EV +2.45%E +0.642%K +0.871%G +0.021%3.8%2026-10-21 15:15
Bovada🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +0.833%E +0.222%K +0.303%G +0.003%4.2%2026-10-21 06:25
SportsBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -7.88%E -6.25%K -30.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV +0.833%E +0.222%K +0.303%G +0.003%6.0%2026-10-21 11:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -4.96%E -3.81%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -0.511%E -0.138%K -0.189%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-21 13:05
Betsson🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.42%E -5.01%K -22.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -0.511%E -0.138%K -0.189%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-21 06:40
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.42%E -5.01%K -22.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -0.511%E -0.138%K -0.189%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-21 06:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -4.96%E -3.81%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -1.86%E -0.508%K -0.700%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 14:41
DraftKings🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.22%E -3.22%K -13.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.20%E -0.889%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-21 14:41
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.20%E -0.889%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 06:55
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.20%E -0.889%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 06:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.20%E -0.889%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 06:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.20%E -0.889%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 06:54
ReBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.20%E -0.889%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 14:05
theScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -7.15%E -5.63%K -26.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -3.20%E -0.889%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-21 06:55
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.96%E -3.81%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 07:35
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.96%E -3.81%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 11:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.96%E -3.81%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 11:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.96%E -3.81%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 11:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.96%E -3.81%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 11:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.96%E -3.81%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 11:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.96%E -3.81%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 11:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-21 06:24
TABtouch🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.42%E -5.01%K -22.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-21 06:24
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.42%E -5.01%K -22.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-21 06:24
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.58%EV -2.76%E -2.08%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.35%E -1.52%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-21 15:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.49%E -2.65%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 14:45
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-21 14:05
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -7.15%E -5.63%K -26.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 14:05
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.61%E -6.89%K -34.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-21 06:38
GTbets🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.36%EV -7.88%E -6.25%K -30.31%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.64%EV -6.70%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -2.76%E -2.08%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -7.23%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-21 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -2.76%E -2.08%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -7.23%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-21 13:44
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 15:46
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 15:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 14:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.15%E -5.63%K -26.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 14:45
picklebet_au🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.15%E -5.63%K -26.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 15:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.15%E -5.63%K -26.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 12:23
MyBookie.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.15%E -5.63%K -26.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 14:50
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.96%E -3.81%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -11.27%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-21 06:45
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.96%E -3.81%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -11.27%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-21 14:35
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -6.42%E -5.01%K -22.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -11.27%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-21 15:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.17%EV -11.54%E -9.53%K -54.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.27%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-21 11:34
BetUS🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -12.61%E -3.88%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 15:05
Neds🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -3.49%E -2.65%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -16.64%E -5.37%K -7.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-21 15:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -3.49%E -2.65%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -16.64%E -5.37%K -7.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-21 15:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 70.74%EV -10.80%E -8.86%K -49.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.26%EV -20.68%E -7.01%K -10.60%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-21 11:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-10-21 15:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-10-21 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-10-21 15:40
Smarkets◎1.31I 76.34%NM 74.61%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.39%2.3%2026-10-21 15:55
Matchbook◎1.31I 76.34%NM 74.36%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.64%2.7%2026-10-21 15:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.98%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.04%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.98%11.4%2026-10-21 15:00