Language:English
Hapoel Tel Aviv v Real Madrid
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local)
Prediction 38.55%2.59fair odd
EV +0.988%
Edge +0.377%
Kelly +0.610%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 2.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.47%38.58%38.44%41.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.442.432.6243.86%41.03%41.15%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Madrid (Visit)
Prediction 61.45%1.63fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.657%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.82%61.42%61.56%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.541.551.6169.44%64.79%64.52%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local): 38.55%; Real Madrid (Visit): 61.45%. For Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.988%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.94%EV +0.988%E +0.377%K +0.610%G +0.006% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.06%EV -9.66%E -6.57%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV +0.988%E +0.377%K +0.610%G +0.006% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -11.50%E -7.99%K -26.15%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -1.71%E -0.671%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -4.74%E -3.06%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-01 15:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.71%E -0.671%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.36%E -3.48%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.71%E -0.671%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.36%E -3.48%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.71%E -0.671%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.71%E -0.671%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.84%EV -2.48%E -0.981%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.16%EV -5.36%E -3.48%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-01 15:24 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -2.87%E -1.14%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.00%EV -2.87%E -1.14%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.00%EV -9.05%E -6.11%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.64%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.74%E -3.06%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-01 15:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.64%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -4.41%E -1.78%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -1.67%E -1.05%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -4.41%E -1.78%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -1.67%E -1.05%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -5.56%E -2.27%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -2.90%E -1.84%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-01 15:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.56%E -2.27%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.52%E -2.24%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.56%E -2.27%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.52%E -2.24%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-01 15:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.56%E -2.27%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.13%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-01 15:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.56%E -2.27%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.56%E -2.27%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.34%E -2.61%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.13%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.34%E -2.61%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.13%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.34%E -2.61%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.13%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.34%E -2.61%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.13%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.34%E -2.61%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.13%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.34%E -2.61%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.13%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -6.72%E -2.78%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.73%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.52%EV -7.11%E -2.95%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.48%EV -7.20%E -4.77%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.52%E -2.24%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.13%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.74%E -3.06%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.74%E -3.06%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 15:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.34%EV -7.88%E -3.30%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.66%EV -4.74%E -3.06%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.42%E -4.01%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.52%E -2.24%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 15:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -11.35%E -4.93%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -1.06%E -0.657%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 12:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -11.35%E -4.93%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -1.06%E -0.657%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 12:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -11.35%E -4.93%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -1.06%E -0.657%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 11:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -11.35%E -4.93%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -11.35%E -4.93%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -11.35%E -4.93%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.20%EV -12.12%E -5.31%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.80%EV -9.66%E -6.57%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 0.8% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72% | 1.0% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.94% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.06% | 1.1% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.35% | 1.9% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.39% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.61% | 3.4% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.56% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.98% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46% | 11.6% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |