The School of Odds
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Fenerbahce SK v Žalgiris

Kickoff: 2026-04-28 18:45 UTC

Final: Fenerbahce SK 89–78 Žalgiris

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fenerbahce SK (Local)

Prediction 68.74%1.45fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -2.69%
Kelly -9.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.70%68.77%68.81%70.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.381.4075.19%72.86%72.46%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Žalgiris (Visit)

Prediction 31.26%3.20fair odd
EV +0.046%
Edge +0.014%
Kelly +0.021%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.82%31.23%31.19%32.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.023.003.2035.09%33.09%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fenerbahce SK (Local): 68.74%; Žalgiris (Visit): 31.26%. For Žalgiris (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.199. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.200, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.046%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.52%E -4.79%K -18.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV +0.046%E +0.014%K +0.021%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 20:10
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -4.46%E -3.21%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -1.52%E -0.482%K -0.706%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-21 20:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.33%EV -5.14%E -3.73%K -13.54%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.67%EV -2.46%E -0.787%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-21 20:10
GTbets🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.80%EV -7.21%E -5.34%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV -2.46%E -0.787%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-22 00:15
William Hill🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -4.46%E -3.21%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -3.08%E -0.994%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-24 01:30
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.83%E -4.26%K -15.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -3.08%E -0.994%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 06:14
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.52%E -4.79%K -18.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.08%E -0.994%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 00:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.52%E -4.79%K -18.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.08%E -0.994%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 00:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.52%E -4.79%K -18.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.08%E -0.994%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 00:44
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -5.14%E -3.73%K -13.54%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -4.02%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 22:49
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.55%EV -7.89%E -5.89%K -23.22%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.45%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 06:14
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.14%E -3.73%K -13.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 17:38
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.14%E -3.73%K -13.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 17:39
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.77%E -2.69%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 20:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.77%E -2.69%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 20:10
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.77%E -2.69%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 20:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.77%E -2.69%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 20:10
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.77%E -2.69%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 20:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.77%E -2.69%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 20:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.77%E -2.69%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 20:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.77%E -2.69%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-22 08:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.77%E -2.69%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-22 17:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.46%E -3.21%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 17:44
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.52%E -4.79%K -18.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 17:39
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.52%E -4.79%K -18.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 06:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.58%E -6.45%K -26.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 20:10
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.58%E -6.45%K -26.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 20:10
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.58%E -6.45%K -26.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 20:10
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.58%E -6.45%K -26.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.21%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 06:13
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.14%E -3.73%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.77%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 20:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.14%E -3.73%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.77%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 20:10
Fanatics🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -5.83%E -4.26%K -15.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 17:43
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.52%E -4.79%K -18.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-21 20:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -6.52%E -4.79%K -18.11%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.00%EV -9.65%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 06:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -6.52%E -4.79%K -18.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -10.90%E -3.82%K -5.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 54.17%1.30I 76.92%NM 45.83%67.8%2026-04-23 11:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 54.17%1.30I 76.92%NM 45.83%67.8%2026-04-23 11:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 54.17%1.30I 76.92%NM 45.83%67.8%2026-04-23 11:34

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.84%12.5%2026-04-21 20:10