Language:English
Fenerbahce SK v FC Bayern München
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fenerbahce SK (Local)
Prediction 74.58%1.34fair odd
EV -0.814%
Edge -0.612%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.46%74.76%74.66%77.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.271.3381.97%79.23%78.74%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Bayern München (Visit)
Prediction 25.42%3.93fair odd
EV +6.78%
Edge +1.61%
Kelly +2.12%
Growth +0.144%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.51%25.24%25.34%27.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.763.754.2028.57%26.60%26.67%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fenerbahce SK (Local): 74.58%; FC Bayern München (Visit): 25.42%. For FC Bayern München (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.78%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -9.02%E -7.39%K -40.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +6.78%E +1.61%K +2.12%G +0.144% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 08:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -9.02%E -7.39%K -40.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +6.78%E +1.61%K +2.12%G +0.144% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 08:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -9.02%E -7.39%K -40.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +6.78%E +1.61%K +2.12%G +0.144% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 08:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.78%E -5.42%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.70%E +0.424%K +0.566%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 08:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.78%E -5.42%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.70%E +0.424%K +0.566%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 15:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -9.02%E -7.39%K -40.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +1.70%E +0.424%K +0.566%G +0.010% | 7.0% | 2026-09-29 17:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.24%EV -4.54%E -3.55%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.76%EV -1.10%E -0.283%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-29 17:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.24%EV -4.54%E -3.55%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.76%EV -1.10%E -0.283%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-29 17:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.78%EV -7.53%E -6.07%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.22%EV -1.35%E -0.349%K -0.470%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-29 13:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.78%E -5.42%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -2.12%E -0.550%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-29 16:23 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.80%E -2.94%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.39%E -0.892%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-29 16:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.80%E -2.94%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.39%E -0.892%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-29 16:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -3.05%E -2.35%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -4.66%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-29 17:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.29%E -4.16%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.66%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-29 08:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.29%E -4.16%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.66%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-29 08:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.29%E -4.16%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.66%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-29 08:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.29%E -4.16%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.66%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-29 08:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.29%E -4.16%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.66%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-29 08:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.29%E -4.16%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.66%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-29 08:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.03%E -4.79%K -23.21%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.66%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-29 08:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.78%E -5.42%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.66%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-29 16:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.02%E -7.39%K -40.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -4.66%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-29 08:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.02%E -7.39%K -40.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -4.66%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-29 08:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.02%E -7.39%K -40.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -4.66%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-29 08:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.25%EV -3.80%E -2.94%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.75%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -3.80%E -2.94%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -5.93%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-29 15:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.54%E -3.55%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.93%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-29 16:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.54%E -3.55%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.93%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-29 16:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.54%E -3.55%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.93%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-29 16:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.54%E -3.55%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.93%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-29 16:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -6.03%E -4.79%K -23.21%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.93%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-29 08:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -6.03%E -4.79%K -23.21%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.93%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-29 11:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.78%E -5.42%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.93%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-29 16:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.78%E -5.42%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.93%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-29 17:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.80%E -2.94%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.20%E -1.97%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-29 16:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.78%E -5.42%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -7.20%E -1.97%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-29 08:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.29%E -4.16%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -8.47%E -2.35%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-29 16:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -4.54%E -3.55%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -9.74%E -2.74%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 15:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -0.814%E -0.612%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -11.02%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -5.29%E -4.16%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -11.02%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-29 16:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -6.03%E -4.79%K -23.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -11.02%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-29 16:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.78%E -5.42%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.02%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-29 16:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.78%E -5.42%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.02%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-29 16:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.12% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88% | 9.4% | 2026-09-29 17:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.12% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88% | 9.4% | 2026-09-29 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 58.31% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 41.69% | 34.0% | 2026-09-29 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 58.31% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 41.69% | 34.0% | 2026-09-29 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 58.31% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 41.69% | 34.0% | 2026-09-29 17:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.15% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.31% | 10.9% | 2026-09-29 08:19 |