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FC Bayern München v Virtus Segafredo Bologna

Kickoff: 2026-10-08 18:00 UTC

Final: FC Bayern München 87–94 Virtus Segafredo Bologna

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Bayern München (Local)

Prediction 66.90%1.49fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -6.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.99%67.01%66.71%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.401.401.4575.76%71.54%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit)

Prediction 33.10%3.02fair odd
EV -0.688%
Edge -0.229%
Kelly -0.344%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%32.99%33.29%35.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.842.853.0040.82%35.25%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Bayern München (Local): 66.90%; Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit): 33.10%. For Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -0.688%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -3.00%E -2.07%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49%EV -4.66%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-05 14:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.51%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.49%EV -5.32%E -1.86%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-05 14:41
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-05 14:30
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.34%E -3.03%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-05 13:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.01%E -3.53%K -11.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.00%E -1.38%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-05 13:30
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.01%E -3.53%K -11.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-05 13:30
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.01%E -3.53%K -11.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-05 13:29
FanDuel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.73%EV -5.68%E -4.03%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.27%EV -2.01%E -0.680%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 13:30
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.688%E -0.229%K -0.344%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 14:30
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.34%E -0.794%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 14:54
GTbets🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.98%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.02%EV -5.98%E -2.11%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 09:10
ReBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.82%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.18%EV -6.65%E -2.36%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 13:30
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 13:30
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 13:39
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.35%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 13:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.83%EV -7.01%E -5.05%K -17.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-05 13:30
SportsBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -8.35%E -6.10%K -22.57%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -3.34%E -1.14%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 13:30
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.02%E -6.63%K -25.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -4.66%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-05 08:24
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -9.02%E -6.63%K -25.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-05 14:54
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -9.02%E -6.63%K -25.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-05 14:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -9.02%E -6.63%K -25.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-05 14:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 64.99%EV -11.70%E -8.86%K -36.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.01%EV -18.90%E -7.71%K -13.03%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-05 13:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 55.32%1.30I 76.92%NM 44.68%72.2%2026-10-04 06:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 55.32%1.30I 76.92%NM 44.68%72.2%2026-10-04 06:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 55.32%1.30I 76.92%NM 44.68%72.2%2026-10-04 06:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.37%13.1%2026-10-05 14:55