默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Dubai Basketball v Real Madrid

开赛时间： 2026-09-24 16:00 UTC

最终结果： Dubai Basketball 78–77 Real Madrid

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

43 家博彩公司 (17 家纳入分析 )

57%

43%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Dubai Basketball (主队)

预测 56.69%1.76公平赔率

EV -3.62%

优势 -2.13%

Kelly -5.17%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.70

博彩公司预测分布

55.41%56.93%56.43%59.70%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.611.661.651.7062.11%60.42%60.61%58.82%最小值均值中位数最大值

Real Madrid (客队)

预测 43.31%2.31公平赔率

EV +3.94%

优势 +1.64%

Kelly +2.81%

增长率 +0.111%

假设最高赔率为 2.40

博彩公司预测分布

40.30%43.07%43.57%44.59%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

2.102.202.202.4047.62%45.36%45.45%41.67%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Dubai Basketball (主队)：56.69%；Real Madrid (客队)：43.31%。对于“Real Madrid (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.31。当时有3家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为2.40，对应+3.94%的正期望值。

有 1 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (43 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队	客队 ▼	利润率	更新时间
LowVig.ag🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -8.16%E -5.03%K -13.16%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +3.94%E +1.64%K +2.81%G +0.111%	3.4%	2026-09-24 15:45
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -8.16%E -5.03%K -13.16%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +3.94%E +1.64%K +2.81%G +0.111%	3.4%	2026-09-24 15:45
1xBet🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -6.46%E -3.91%K -9.93%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV +0.471%E +0.203%K +0.356%G +0.002%	3.7%	2026-09-24 15:34
DraftKings🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -6.46%E -3.91%K -9.93%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -0.396%E -0.172%K -0.304%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-24 14:30
Marathon Bet🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -0.396%E -0.172%K -0.304%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-24 15:34
Pinnacle🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -5.32%E -3.19%K -7.94%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -1.26%E -0.553%K -0.986%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-09-24 15:40
Bovada🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.32%E -3.19%K -7.94%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-24 15:48
BetRivers🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-24 15:34
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-24 15:34
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-24 15:35
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-24 15:35
ATG (SE)🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-24 15:35
Svenska Spel🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-24 15:35
Unibet🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-24 15:34
Coolbet🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.89%E -3.55%K -8.92%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.43%E -1.54%K -2.79%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-24 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -3.43%E -1.54%K -2.79%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-24 15:34
TABtouch🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -8.16%E -5.03%K -13.16%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -3.43%E -1.54%K -2.79%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-09-24 15:34
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-24 13:05
Betway🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-24 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.75%E -2.83%K -6.99%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-24 03:15
ReBet🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.75%E -2.83%K -6.99%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-24 10:04
BetMGM🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.32%E -3.19%K -7.94%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-24 15:30
PlayUp🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -7.59%E -4.66%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-09-24 15:30
Paddy Power🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.16%E -5.03%K -13.16%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-09-24 08:54
PMU (FR)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.72%E -5.42%K -14.30%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-09-24 15:34
SportsBet🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%EV -5.89%E -3.55%K -8.92%G +0.000%	2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -5.16%E -2.36%K -4.34%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-24 09:19
GTbets🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -6.46%E -3.91%K -9.93%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -5.59%E -2.57%K -4.74%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-24 14:50
Betsson🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-24 09:20
NordicBet🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-24 09:20
888sport🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-23 09:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-23 09:39
888sport (SE)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.62%E -2.13%K -5.17%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-23 09:40
BoyleSports🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.32%E -3.19%K -7.94%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-09-24 09:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.32%E -3.19%K -7.94%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-09-24 01:05
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -5.89%E -3.55%K -8.92%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-09-24 06:15
TAB🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.46%E -3.91%K -9.93%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-24 15:55
FanDuel🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -5.89%E -3.55%K -8.92%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -7.32%E -3.42%K -6.43%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-24 04:00
Codere (IT)🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 56.50%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.97%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 43.50%EV -7.76%E -3.64%K -6.87%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-09-24 08:55
BetUS🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 55.97%EV -5.89%E -3.55%K -8.92%G +0.000%	2.11I 47.39%NM 44.03%EV -8.62%E -4.09%K -7.77%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-09-24 15:55
Fanatics🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -4.19%E -2.48%K -6.07%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -9.06%E -4.31%K -8.23%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-09-24 15:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.16%E -5.03%K -13.16%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -9.06%E -4.31%K -8.23%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-09-24 15:30
Neds🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.16%E -5.03%K -13.16%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -9.06%E -4.31%K -8.23%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-09-24 15:30
Coral🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -8.72%E -5.42%K -14.30%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -9.06%E -4.31%K -8.23%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-09-24 15:30

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%	2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%	0.9%	2026-09-24 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%	2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%	0.9%	2026-09-24 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%	2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%	0.9%	2026-09-24 15:55
Smarkets◎	1.70I 58.82%NM 57.71%	2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29%	1.9%	2026-09-24 15:50
Matchbook◎	1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%	3.0%	2026-09-24 15:50

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (1)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司	选项 1	选项 2	选项 3	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%	2.25I 44.44%NM 39.82%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.47%	11.6%	2026-09-24 15:30