The School of Odds
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Dubai Basketball v KK Crvena zvezda

Kickoff: 2026-10-08 16:00 UTC

Final: Dubai Basketball 58–77 KK Crvena zvezda

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dubai Basketball (Local)

Prediction 70.25%1.42fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -6.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.77%70.18%70.19%71.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.341.351.3979.37%74.50%74.07%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KK Crvena zvezda (Visit)

Prediction 29.75%3.36fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.553%
Kelly -0.794%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.54%29.82%29.81%32.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.653.123.133.3037.74%32.02%31.90%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dubai Basketball (Local): 70.25%; KK Crvena zvezda (Visit): 29.75%. For KK Crvena zvezda (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -1.83%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.52%EV -2.35%E -1.69%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.48%EV -5.69%E -1.80%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-05 14:39
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -2.35%E -1.69%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-04 14:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.33%EV -3.05%E -2.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.67%EV -7.18%E -2.30%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-04 14:25
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.46%E -3.28%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-05 14:20
Coolbet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%EV -4.46%E -3.28%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV -5.40%E -1.70%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-05 14:25
GTbets🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.09%EV -4.46%E -3.28%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.91%EV -9.56%E -3.15%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-05 08:50
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.46%E -3.28%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 13:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.16%E -3.82%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 08:19
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.16%E -3.82%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 08:20
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.16%E -3.82%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 08:20
BetMGM🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.16%E -3.82%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 14:19
Fanatics🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.16%E -3.82%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 12:29
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.57%E -4.94%K -19.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.83%E -0.553%K -0.794%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-05 08:20
ReBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.11%EV -6.57%E -4.94%K -19.90%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.89%EV -7.18%E -2.30%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 08:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.57%E -4.94%K -19.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-05 08:19
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.57%E -4.94%K -19.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-04 12:30
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.57%E -4.94%K -19.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-05 14:19
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.57%E -4.94%K -19.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-05 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.57%E -4.94%K -19.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-05 14:19
SportsBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.46%EV -7.97%E -6.09%K -25.72%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.54%EV -2.42%E -0.738%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 08:18
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.67%E -6.67%K -28.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 12:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 67.77%EV -11.48%E -9.11%K -44.17%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.23%EV -21.16%E -7.99%K -12.83%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-05 08:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 55.32%1.30I 76.92%NM 44.68%72.2%2026-10-05 11:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 55.32%1.30I 76.92%NM 44.68%72.2%2026-10-05 11:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 55.32%1.30I 76.92%NM 44.68%72.2%2026-10-05 11:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.66%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%12.0%2026-10-05 14:20