默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Beşiktaş J.K. v Valencia Basket

开赛时间： 2026-09-25 17:00 UTC

最终结果： Beşiktaş J.K. 94–96 Valencia Basket

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

41 家博彩公司 (15 家纳入分析 )

53%

47%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Beşiktaş J.K. (主队)

预测 53.15%1.88公平赔率

EV -2.74%

优势 -1.50%

Kelly -3.30%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.83

博彩公司预测分布

52.22%53.10%53.23%54.62%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.701.781.791.8358.82%56.32%55.87%54.64%最小值均值中位数最大值

Valencia Basket (客队)

预测 46.85%2.13公平赔率

EV -1.61%

优势 -0.767%

Kelly -1.46%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.10

博彩公司预测分布

45.38%46.90%46.77%47.78%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.962.022.002.1051.02%49.59%50.00%47.62%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Beşiktaş J.K. (主队)：53.15%；Valencia Basket (客队)：46.85%。对于“Valencia Basket (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.13。当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为2.10，期望值为-1.61%，未产生正期望值。

有 1 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (41 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队 ▼	客队	利润率	更新时间
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.74%E -1.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-25 11:55
LowVig.ag🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.74%E -1.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-25 11:54
Pinnacle🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -3.02%E -1.46%K -2.82%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-25 16:01
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.95%E -1.93%K -3.76%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-25 14:10
DraftKings🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.95%E -1.93%K -3.76%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-23 20:20
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.95%E -1.93%K -3.76%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-25 10:15
Betway🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.95%E -1.93%K -3.76%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-25 10:14
BetRivers🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 10:09
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 10:10
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 10:10
Unibet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 10:10
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 10:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 10:15
Svenska Spel🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 10:09
ATG (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 10:09
888sport🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 16:00
888sport (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.33%E -2.41%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 16:00
1xBet🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%EV -4.87%E -2.72%K -6.16%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 46.13%EV -2.08%E -0.994%K -1.91%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-09-25 11:29
ReBet🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.87%E -2.72%K -6.16%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -4.42%E -2.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-25 11:04
TABtouch🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -4.87%E -2.72%K -6.16%G +0.000%	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -7.70%E -3.91%K -7.94%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-09-25 10:09
Marathon Bet🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%EV -5.40%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.23%EV -3.02%E -1.46%K -2.82%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-25 11:22
Coolbet🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.40%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.95%E -1.93%K -3.76%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-25 10:15
Betsson🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.40%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.42%E -2.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-25 10:35
NordicBet🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.40%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.42%E -2.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-25 10:15
Bovada🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.61%E -0.767%K -1.46%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-22 10:24
Fanatics🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-25 16:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-25 10:15
FanDuel🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 52.55%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%EV -8.17%E -4.17%K -8.51%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-09-25 10:15
PMU (FR)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 52.55%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%EV -8.17%E -4.17%K -8.51%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-09-25 10:10
SportsBet🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.46%E -3.67%K -8.50%G +0.000%	2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -5.36%E -2.65%K -5.25%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-25 10:15
TAB🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.99%E -4.00%K -9.32%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-25 14:50
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.17%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%EV -7.23%E -3.65%K -7.38%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-25 10:10
Codere (IT)🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.17%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%EV -7.23%E -3.65%K -7.38%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-25 10:15
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.17%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%EV -7.23%E -3.65%K -7.38%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-25 10:19
Paddy Power🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-09-25 10:15
GTbets🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -8.59%E -4.99%K -11.93%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -3.02%E -1.46%K -2.82%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-09-24 10:35
PlayUp🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -8.59%E -4.99%K -11.93%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -3.95%E -1.93%K -3.76%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-09-25 15:00
Neds🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.65%E -5.68%K -13.78%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-25 14:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.65%E -5.68%K -13.78%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-25 14:50
Coral🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.65%E -5.68%K -13.78%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.29%E -3.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-25 14:49

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%	2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%	0.6%	2026-09-25 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%	2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%	0.6%	2026-09-25 16:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%	2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%	0.6%	2026-09-25 16:30
Smarkets◎	1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%	2.12I 47.17%NM 46.33%	1.8%	2026-09-25 16:50
Matchbook◎	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%	6.7%	2026-09-25 16:25

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (1)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司	选项 1	选项 2	选项 3	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%	2.15I 46.51%NM 41.84%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.18%	11.2%	2026-09-25 14:50