The School of Odds
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Beşiktaş J.K. v FC Bayern München

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 17:01 UTC

Final: Beşiktaş J.K. 95–87 FC Bayern München

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Beşiktaş J.K. (Local)

Prediction 60.06%1.66fair odd
EV -0.897%
Edge -0.543%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.18%60.01%60.00%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.581.6566.67%63.47%63.29%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Bayern München (Visit)

Prediction 39.94%2.50fair odd
EV -0.157%
Edge -0.063%
Kelly -0.104%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%39.99%40.00%41.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.342.5045.45%42.73%42.74%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Beşiktaş J.K. (Local): 60.06%; FC Bayern München (Visit): 39.94%. For FC Bayern München (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.504. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.500, with an expected value of -0.157%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -0.897%E -0.543%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -6.15%E -2.62%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-16 16:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -0.897%E -0.543%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -6.15%E -2.62%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-16 16:45
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.70%E -1.67%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-16 16:59
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.30%E -2.05%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.15%E -1.73%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-16 17:00
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.30%E -2.05%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.15%E -2.62%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 16:44
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%EV -3.30%E -2.05%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.82%EV -10.54%E -4.71%K -8.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-16 16:59
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -3.90%E -2.44%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -2.95%E -1.21%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-16 16:45
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.90%E -2.44%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.15%E -1.73%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-16 16:50
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.90%E -2.44%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.15%E -2.62%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 16:45
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.90%E -2.44%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.15%E -2.62%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 16:45
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -3.90%E -2.44%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -6.95%E -2.98%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -3.90%E -2.44%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -6.95%E -2.98%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -3.90%E -2.44%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -6.95%E -2.98%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -3.90%E -2.44%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -6.95%E -2.98%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 16:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -3.90%E -2.44%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -6.95%E -2.98%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -3.90%E -2.44%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -6.95%E -2.98%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 16:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.50%E -2.83%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-16 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -5.10%E -3.23%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -2.15%E -0.879%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-16 17:00
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -5.10%E -3.23%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -7.35%E -3.17%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-16 16:39
GTbets🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.38%EV -5.10%E -3.23%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.62%EV -7.74%E -3.35%K -5.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-16 16:59
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.10%E -3.23%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-16 17:00
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV -5.10%E -3.23%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -8.94%E -3.92%K -6.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-16 16:59
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -5.10%E -3.23%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -12.14%E -5.52%K -10.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-16 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -5.10%E -3.23%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -12.14%E -5.52%K -10.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-16 16:59
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.70%E -3.63%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.95%E -2.08%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-16 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.70%E -3.63%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.95%E -2.08%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-16 16:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.70%E -3.63%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.95%E -2.08%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-16 16:44
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.70%E -3.63%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.15%E -2.62%K -4.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-16 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.74%EV -5.70%E -3.63%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.26%EV -6.95%E -2.98%K -5.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-16 16:40
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -5.70%E -3.63%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -7.35%E -3.17%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-16 16:40
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.70%E -3.63%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-16 17:00
picklebet_au🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.01%EV -5.70%E -3.63%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.99%EV -9.74%E -4.31%K -7.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-16 16:59
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -6.30%E -4.04%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -1.75%E -0.713%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-16 17:00
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.30%E -4.04%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.15%E -1.73%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 17:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -6.30%E -4.04%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -8.94%E -3.92%K -6.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-16 16:50
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.90%E -4.45%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.15%E -1.73%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-16 17:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.90%E -4.45%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.15%E -2.62%K -4.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-16 17:00
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -6.90%E -4.45%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -10.14%E -4.51%K -8.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-16 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.50%E -4.87%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.15%E -1.73%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-16 17:00
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.10%E -5.30%K -15.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.157%E -0.063%K -0.104%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 17:00
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.10%E -5.30%K -15.29%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.15%E -1.73%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-16 17:00
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -8.10%E -5.30%K -15.29%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -4.95%E -2.08%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-16 17:00
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -8.70%E -5.73%K -16.74%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -3.35%E -1.38%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-16 17:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -8.70%E -5.73%K -16.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.15%E -2.62%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-16 17:00
ReBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -8.70%E -5.73%K -16.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-16 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.46%EV -9.91%E -6.60%K -19.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.14%E -5.52%K -10.11%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-16 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.17%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83%1.2%2026-10-16 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.17%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83%1.2%2026-10-16 17:00
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69%1.6%2026-10-16 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-10-16 17:00
Matchbook◎1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-10-16 17:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.43%12.1%2026-10-16 17:00