Language:English
ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne v Valencia Basket
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Local)
Prediction 40.11%2.49fair odd
EV +0.267%
Edge +0.107%
Kelly +0.178%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%39.99%40.00%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.372.382.5045.05%42.16%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Valencia Basket (Visit)
Prediction 59.89%1.67fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.81%60.01%60.00%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.561.561.6468.97%63.98%64.10%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Local): 40.11%; Valencia Basket (Visit): 59.89%. For ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.267%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.267%E +0.107%K +0.178%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.36%E -5.47%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-01 14:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.267%E +0.107%K +0.178%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.36%E -5.47%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-01 14:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.267%E +0.107%K +0.178%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.36%E -5.47%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-01 14:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -1.74%E -0.709%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.77%E -3.00%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-02 15:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.40%EV -2.54%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.60%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-02 15:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.54%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.57%E -4.21%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.54%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.57%E -4.21%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 17:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.54%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.57%E -4.21%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 17:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.54%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.57%E -4.21%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.54%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.57%E -4.21%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 17:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.54%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.57%E -4.21%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -2.54%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -7.17%E -4.62%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 20:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-02 15:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-02 15:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-02 15:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.76%E -5.04%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.76%E -5.04%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-02 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.76%E -5.04%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -4.55%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -2.97%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-02 17:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -4.55%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -4.55%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 17:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.55%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 17:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.55%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 15:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -4.55%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -8.36%E -5.47%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-02 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -4.95%E -2.09%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 15:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -5.35%E -2.27%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -1.78%E -1.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-02 17:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -5.35%E -2.27%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -1.78%E -1.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-02 17:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.25%EV -5.35%E -2.27%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.75%EV -4.77%E -3.00%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 15:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.75%E -2.45%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.75%E -2.45%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 17:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.75%E -2.45%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 17:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.75%E -2.45%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -7.17%E -4.62%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-02 15:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -5.75%E -2.45%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -7.76%E -5.04%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.16%EV -7.35%E -3.18%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.84%EV -7.17%E -4.62%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-02 16:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-02 15:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-02 17:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.17%E -4.62%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.17%E -4.62%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-02 17:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -8.36%E -5.47%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -10.16%E -6.77%K -20.32%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-30 17:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -10.16%E -6.77%K -20.32%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-30 17:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.87%EV -8.56%E -3.75%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.13%EV -13.16%E -9.07%K -29.23%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-01 20:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.76%E -4.34%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -7.76%E -5.04%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.19%EV -10.96%E -4.94%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.81%EV -2.97%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-02 17:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77% | 0.3% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 1.0% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 1.0% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68% | 1.7% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44% | 2.8% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.38% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.77% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86% | 12.2% | 2026-10-02 15:09 |