Language:English
Anadolu Efes v Real Madrid
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Anadolu Efes (Local)
Prediction 49.53%2.02fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.752%
Kelly +1.47%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.34%49.56%49.61%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.921.942.0555.56%52.11%51.55%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Madrid (Visit)
Prediction 50.47%1.98fair odd
EV +3.46%
Edge +1.69%
Kelly +3.29%
Growth +0.114%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%50.44%50.39%53.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.861.852.0557.80%53.80%54.05%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anadolu Efes (Local): 49.53%; Real Madrid (Visit): 50.47%. For Real Madrid (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.98. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.46%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -10.84%E -6.02%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +3.46%E +1.69%K +3.29%G +0.114% | 4.3% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -10.84%E -6.02%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +3.46%E +1.69%K +3.29%G +0.114% | 4.3% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -10.84%E -6.02%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +0.935%E +0.468%K +0.935%G +0.009% | 5.6% | 2026-09-26 17:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -10.84%E -6.02%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +0.935%E +0.468%K +0.935%G +0.009% | 5.6% | 2026-09-26 17:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -10.84%E -6.02%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +0.935%E +0.468%K +0.935%G +0.009% | 5.6% | 2026-09-26 17:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -4.40%E -2.28%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -2.60%E -1.35%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-29 15:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -3.91%E -2.01%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -3.61%E -1.89%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.39%E -2.82%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.61%E -1.89%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.39%E -2.82%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.61%E -1.89%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-29 14:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -3.91%E -2.01%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -4.11%E -2.16%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.61%EV -4.40%E -2.28%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.39%EV -4.11%E -2.16%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.89%E -3.10%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.11%E -2.16%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -2.92%E -1.49%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -5.12%E -2.72%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.90%E -2.55%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.12%E -2.72%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 16:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87%EV -6.38%E -3.38%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.13%EV -5.12%E -2.72%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -3.91%E -2.01%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.63%E -3.01%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 16:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.73%EV -6.38%E -3.38%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.27%EV -5.63%E -3.01%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-29 12:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.37%E -3.94%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.63%E -3.01%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.37%E -3.94%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.63%E -3.01%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-29 16:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -7.87%E -4.23%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -6.13%E -3.30%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -2.92%E -1.49%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.64%E -3.59%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 15:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.41%E -1.75%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.64%E -3.59%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 13:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.36%E -4.52%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.64%E -3.59%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.94%EV -4.90%E -2.55%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.06%EV -7.14%E -3.88%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -9.36%E -5.11%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -7.64%E -4.18%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -1.93%E -0.973%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -8.15%E -4.48%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-29 14:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -2.42%E -1.23%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -8.15%E -4.48%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-29 14:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -2.42%E -1.23%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -8.15%E -4.48%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-29 14:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -2.42%E -1.23%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -8.15%E -4.48%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-29 14:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -2.42%E -1.23%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -8.15%E -4.48%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-29 14:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -2.42%E -1.23%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -8.15%E -4.48%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-29 14:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -2.42%E -1.23%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -8.65%E -4.78%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-29 14:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -2.42%E -1.23%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -9.16%E -5.09%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 14:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -2.92%E -1.49%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -9.16%E -5.09%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-29 14:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.41%E -1.75%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.16%E -5.09%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.41%E -1.75%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.16%E -5.09%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-29 16:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.41%E -1.75%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.16%E -5.09%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%EV -4.40%E -2.28%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%EV -9.66%E -5.40%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-29 13:23 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -4.40%E -2.28%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -10.17%E -5.71%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-29 14:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV +1.54%E +0.752%K +1.47%G +0.023% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -10.67%E -6.03%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 16:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -3.41%E -1.75%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -12.69%E -7.34%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-29 16:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -3.41%E -1.75%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -12.69%E -7.34%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-29 16:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -3.41%E -1.75%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -12.69%E -7.34%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-29 16:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.54% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.46% | 9.6% | 2026-09-29 16:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 51.18% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 48.82% | 18.4% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 48.01% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 51.99% | 22.5% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 45.10% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 54.90% | 32.0% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 45.10% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 54.90% | 32.0% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.42% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.49% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.10% | 12.3% | 2026-09-29 16:50 |