The School of Odds
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Yomiuri Giants v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yomiuri Giants (Local)

Prediction 60.08%1.66fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -3.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%59.92%60.30%61.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.581.581.6365.79%63.26%63.29%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 39.92%2.51fair odd
EV -0.602%
Edge -0.242%
Kelly -0.404%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.97%40.08%39.70%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.342.352.4944.44%42.82%42.55%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yomiuri Giants (Local): 60.08%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 39.92%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.49, with an expected value of -0.602%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -2.07%E -1.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -6.59%E -2.82%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 16:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.67%E -1.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.19%E -1.75%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 04:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.67%E -1.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.19%E -1.75%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 04:30
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.67%E -1.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.19%E -3.56%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 04:30
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.67%E -1.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.18%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 16:20
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.27%E -2.03%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.99%E -3.00%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 04:35
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.27%E -2.03%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.19%E -3.56%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 23:29
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -3.27%E -2.03%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -10.18%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 01:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -3.27%E -2.03%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -10.18%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 01:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -3.27%E -2.03%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -10.18%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 01:04
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -3.27%E -2.03%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -10.18%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 01:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -3.27%E -2.03%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -10.18%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 01:05
Bally Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -3.27%E -2.03%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -10.18%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 01:05
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -3.87%E -2.42%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -3.00%E -1.23%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-12 04:50
Pinnacle🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -4.47%E -2.81%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -0.602%E -0.242%K -0.404%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-12 04:35
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.47%E -2.81%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.20%E -0.897%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-12 04:34
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.07%E -3.21%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.19%E -1.75%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 04:35
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.07%E -3.21%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.19%E -1.75%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 04:35
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.67%E -3.61%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.20%E -0.897%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-12 04:35
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -5.67%E -3.61%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -3.40%E -1.40%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 04:35
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.67%E -3.61%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.18%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 16:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.67%E -3.61%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.18%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 16:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.67%E -3.61%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.18%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 16:20
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.67%E -3.61%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.18%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 23:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.27%E -4.02%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.19%E -1.75%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 04:30
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.27%E -4.02%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.19%E -2.63%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 04:30
ReBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.27%E -4.02%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.19%E -2.63%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 04:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.36%EV -6.87%E -4.44%K -12.50%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.64%EV -5.79%E -2.45%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 04:39
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.48%E -4.85%K -13.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.19%E -1.75%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 04:30
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.24%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -4.99%E -2.10%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 04:30
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -6.19%E -2.63%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 04:35
Everygame🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -6.19%E -2.63%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 04:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -8.68%E -5.71%K -16.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.19%E -2.63%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 04:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.68%EV -8.68%E -5.71%K -16.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -10.18%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-12 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.