The School of Odds
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Yomiuri Giants v Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Kickoff: 2026-05-12 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yomiuri Giants (Local)

Prediction 54.07%1.85fair odd
EV +1.11%
Edge +0.593%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.55%54.19%54.03%56.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.741.8759.88%57.76%57.47%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit)

Prediction 45.93%2.18fair odd
EV +0.588%
Edge +0.269%
Kelly +0.494%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.85%45.81%45.97%48.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.062.052.1951.28%48.57%48.78%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yomiuri Giants (Local): 54.07%; Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit): 45.93%. For Yomiuri Giants (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.55%EV +1.11%E +0.593%K +1.28%G +0.014%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.45%EV -8.60%E -4.32%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-12 08:49
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.96%EV -2.68%E -1.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.04%EV -3.09%E -1.46%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-12 08:54
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.68%E -1.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-12 08:49
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.68%E -1.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.44%E -5.35%K -10.98%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-12 08:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -3.76%E -2.11%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -4.46%E -2.15%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-12 08:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -3.76%E -2.11%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -4.46%E -2.15%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-12 08:29
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -3.76%E -2.11%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.84%E -2.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-12 08:49
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -3.76%E -2.11%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.84%E -2.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-12 08:49
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.30%E -2.43%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-12 08:35
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.30%E -2.43%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.84%E -2.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 08:29
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.38%E -3.07%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-12 08:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.38%E -3.07%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.44%E -5.35%K -10.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-12 08:39
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.38%E -3.07%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.44%E -5.35%K -10.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-12 08:49
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.92%E -3.40%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.84%E -2.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 08:34
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.92%E -3.40%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.84%E -2.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 08:25
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.92%E -3.40%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.84%E -2.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 08:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.92%E -3.40%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.84%E -2.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 08:35
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.46%E -3.73%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.84%E -2.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-12 08:34
William Hill🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -7.54%E -4.41%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV +0.588%E +0.269%K +0.494%G +0.003%4.1%2026-05-11 13:00
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.54%E -4.41%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-12 08:35
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.08%E -4.75%K -11.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-12 08:24
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -8.62%E -5.10%K -12.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -1.25%E -0.581%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-11 13:29
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -8.62%E -5.10%K -12.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -5.84%E -2.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-12 08:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -9.16%E -5.45%K -13.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 08:40
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -9.16%E -5.45%K -13.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 08:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -9.16%E -5.45%K -13.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 08:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -9.16%E -5.45%K -13.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 08:40
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -9.16%E -5.45%K -13.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 08:39
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -9.16%E -5.45%K -13.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 08:40
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.70%E -5.81%K -14.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 13:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.70%E -5.81%K -14.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 13:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.70%E -5.81%K -14.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 13:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.87%EV -9.70%E -5.81%K -14.48%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.13%EV -10.44%E -5.35%K -10.98%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-12 08:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.