Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yomiuri Giants v Chunichi Dragons

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yomiuri Giants (Local)

Prediction 53.59%1.87fair odd
EV +0.219%
Edge +0.117%
Kelly +0.252%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%53.48%53.62%54.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.761.741.8758.48%56.91%57.47%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chunichi Dragons (Visit)

Prediction 46.41%2.15fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.763%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.22%46.52%46.38%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.022.002.1251.81%49.42%50.00%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yomiuri Giants (Local): 53.59%; Chunichi Dragons (Visit): 46.41%. For Yomiuri Giants (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.866. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.870, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.219%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +0.219%E +0.117%K +0.252%G +0.001%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -9.51%E -4.88%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 08:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +0.219%E +0.117%K +0.252%G +0.001%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -9.51%E -4.88%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 08:45
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%EV -1.92%E -1.05%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.16%EV -4.87%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 08:30
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.59%EV -3.00%E -1.66%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.41%EV -3.01%E -1.44%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 08:40
BetUS🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -3.00%E -1.66%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -10.43%E -5.41%K -11.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 08:40
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.53%E -1.96%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.87%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-21 07:55
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.60%E -2.59%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.87%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 08:45
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.60%E -2.59%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.87%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 08:45
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.60%E -2.59%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.87%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 08:55
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.14%E -2.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.40%E -2.14%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 07:55
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.14%E -2.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.87%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 08:50
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.14%E -2.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.19%E -3.59%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 07:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.14%E -2.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.19%E -3.59%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 07:54
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.14%E -2.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.19%E -3.59%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 07:53
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -6.21%E -3.55%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -1.62%E -0.763%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-21 08:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.21%E -3.55%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.19%E -3.59%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 08:00
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.21%E -3.55%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.51%E -4.88%K -10.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-21 07:55
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.75%E -3.88%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.87%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-20 12:09
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.75%E -3.88%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.87%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-20 22:37
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.75%E -3.88%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.19%E -3.59%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 08:05
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -6.75%E -3.88%K -9.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -9.51%E -4.88%K -10.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-21 07:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.28%E -4.21%K -9.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.19%E -3.59%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-20 12:10
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.28%E -4.21%K -9.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.19%E -3.59%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-20 12:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.28%E -4.21%K -9.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.19%E -3.59%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-20 12:14
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.28%E -4.21%K -9.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.19%E -3.59%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 07:54
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.28%E -4.21%K -9.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.19%E -3.59%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-20 22:40
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -7.82%E -4.55%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -3.47%E -1.67%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 14:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -7.82%E -4.55%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -3.47%E -1.67%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 14:49
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -7.82%E -4.55%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -3.47%E -1.67%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 14:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -7.82%E -4.55%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -3.47%E -1.67%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -7.82%E -4.55%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -3.47%E -1.67%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 14:54
Bally Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -7.82%E -4.55%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -3.47%E -1.67%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 14:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.82%E -4.55%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.19%E -3.59%K -7.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-21 08:00
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.36%E -4.89%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.19%E -3.59%K -7.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 08:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.15%EV -8.36%E -4.89%K -11.77%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.85%EV -9.97%E -5.14%K -10.61%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-21 08:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.