The School of Odds
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Yokohama DeNA BayStars v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Local)

Prediction 55.30%1.81fair odd
EV -0.452%
Edge -0.251%
Kelly -0.565%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.38%54.98%55.56%56.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.721.721.8061.35%58.12%58.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 44.70%2.24fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.553%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.62%45.02%44.44%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.092.102.2151.28%47.92%47.62%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Local): 55.30%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 44.70%. For Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -0.452%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -0.452%E -0.251%K -0.565%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -11.50%E -5.81%K -11.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 03:49
William Hill🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -1.56%E -0.876%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -7.03%E -3.38%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-23 04:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -3.22%E -1.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -4.80%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-23 04:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -3.22%E -1.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -4.80%E -2.25%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-23 04:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.22%E -1.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.37%E -4.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 04:09
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.22%E -1.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.37%E -4.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 04:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.22%E -1.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.37%E -4.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 04:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.22%E -1.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.37%E -4.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 04:09
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.22%E -1.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.37%E -4.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 04:09
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.22%E -1.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.37%E -4.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 04:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -3.22%E -1.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -12.84%E -6.59%K -13.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-23 04:50
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -3.22%E -1.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -12.84%E -6.59%K -13.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-23 03:49
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -3.77%E -2.17%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -1.67%E -0.759%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-23 04:40
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.77%E -2.17%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.90%E -1.82%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-23 04:39
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.77%E -2.17%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.37%E -4.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 04:40
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.77%E -2.17%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.37%E -4.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 04:40
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.88%E -2.84%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.90%E -1.82%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-23 04:40
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.88%E -2.84%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.90%E -1.82%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-23 04:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.86%EV -4.88%E -2.84%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.14%EV -6.59%E -3.15%K -6.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 04:38
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.38%EV -5.43%E -3.18%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.62%EV -1.22%E -0.553%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-23 04:39
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.43%E -3.18%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.90%E -1.82%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 04:49
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.43%E -3.18%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.14%E -2.92%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 04:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.43%E -3.18%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.14%E -2.92%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 04:39
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.98%E -3.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.01%E -1.39%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 04:49
FanDuel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.98%E -3.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -3.46%E -1.60%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 04:50
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.98%E -3.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -10.61%E -5.30%K -10.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 02:59
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.54%E -3.87%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.14%E -2.92%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 04:49
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.54%E -3.87%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.14%E -2.92%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 04:39
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.64%E -4.58%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.14%E -2.92%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-23 04:49
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.64%E -4.58%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.14%E -2.92%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-23 04:49
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.64%E -4.58%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.14%E -2.92%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-23 04:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.64%E -4.58%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.14%E -2.92%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-23 04:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.64%E -4.58%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.14%E -2.92%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-23 04:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.10%EV -9.85%E -6.05%K -15.64%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -10.61%E -5.30%K -10.61%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-23 04:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.