The School of Odds
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Yokohama DeNA BayStars v Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Local)

Prediction 45.72%2.19fair odd
EV -0.338%
Edge -0.155%
Kelly -0.287%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.44%46.04%45.19%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.032.052.1852.36%49.38%48.78%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit)

Prediction 54.28%1.84fair odd
EV +3.68%
Edge +1.93%
Kelly +4.05%
Growth +0.149%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%53.96%54.81%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.761.741.9159.88%56.88%57.47%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Local): 45.72%; Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit): 54.28%. For Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.84. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.91, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -12.68%E -6.64%K -13.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +3.68%E +1.93%K +4.05%G +0.149%4.7%2026-05-06 01:05
Coolbet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -10.40%E -5.30%K -10.83%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV +0.425%E +0.230%K +0.500%G +0.002%5.1%2026-05-06 04:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -7.20%E -3.54%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -1.75%E -0.965%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-06 04:35
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -11.31%E -5.83%K -12.03%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.73%EV -1.75%E -0.965%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-06 04:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -11.77%E -6.10%K -12.65%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -1.75%E -0.965%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 04:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -11.77%E -6.10%K -12.65%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -1.75%E -0.965%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 04:50
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -11.77%E -6.10%K -12.65%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -1.75%E -0.965%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 04:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -11.77%E -6.10%K -12.65%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -1.75%E -0.965%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 04:49
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -11.77%E -6.10%K -12.65%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -1.75%E -0.965%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 04:50
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.85%E -5.57%K -11.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.29%E -1.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-06 04:54
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -12.68%E -6.64%K -13.94%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -2.29%E -1.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-06 04:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -12.68%E -6.64%K -13.94%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -2.29%E -1.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-06 04:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -12.68%E -6.64%K -13.94%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -2.29%E -1.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-06 04:55
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -4.00%E -1.90%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -3.38%E -1.90%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-06 04:50
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -0.338%E -0.155%K -0.287%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -5.00%E -2.86%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-06 04:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.85%E -5.57%K -11.42%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.00%E -2.86%K -6.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-06 04:50
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.71%E -0.795%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.55%E -3.19%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-06 04:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.71%E -0.795%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.55%E -3.19%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-06 04:55
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.28%E -3.06%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.55%E -3.19%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-06 04:49
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.28%E -3.06%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-06 04:49
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -1.71%E -0.795%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -6.63%E -3.86%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-06 04:55
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -1.71%E -0.795%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -6.63%E -3.86%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-06 04:55
FanDuel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.08%E -1.45%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.63%E -3.86%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 04:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.00%E -1.90%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.18%E -4.20%K -10.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-06 04:49
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.00%E -1.90%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.18%E -4.20%K -10.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-06 04:54
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.00%E -1.90%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.18%E -4.20%K -10.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-06 04:49
MyBookie.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -5.82%E -2.83%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -7.18%E -4.20%K -10.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-06 04:50
ReBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.28%E -3.06%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.18%E -4.20%K -10.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 04:50
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.28%E -3.06%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.72%E -4.54%K -11.03%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-06 04:50
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.57%E -4.28%K -8.57%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.72%E -4.54%K -11.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-06 04:44
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -4.00%E -1.90%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -8.26%E -4.89%K -11.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-06 04:44
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -6.28%E -3.06%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -8.26%E -4.89%K -11.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-06 04:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -8.57%E -4.28%K -8.57%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -9.35%E -5.60%K -13.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 04:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.