The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Yokohama DeNA BayStars v Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Local)

Prediction 55.39%1.81fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -3.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%55.34%55.56%56.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.701.691.7660.61%58.81%59.17%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit)

Prediction 44.61%2.24fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.72%44.66%44.44%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.102.1950.00%47.40%47.62%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Local): 55.39%; Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit): 44.61%. For Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.19, with an expected value of -2.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.10%EV -2.52%E -1.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.90%EV -3.64%E -1.68%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-04 05:30
1xBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -2.52%E -1.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -4.98%E -2.34%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-04 05:40
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.07%E -1.76%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 05:45
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.07%E -1.76%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 05:45
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.63%E -2.08%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.08%E -1.90%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-04 04:14
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.63%E -2.08%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.54%E -4.17%K -8.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 05:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -4.18%E -2.42%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -3.19%E -1.47%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-04 05:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -4.18%E -2.42%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -3.19%E -1.47%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-04 05:43
William Hill🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -5.29%E -3.09%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -2.30%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-03 09:50
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.29%E -3.09%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -4.53%E -2.12%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-04 05:45
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -5.29%E -3.09%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.76%EV -5.87%E -2.78%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-04 05:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.29%E -3.09%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 04:15
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.29%E -3.09%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 05:35
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.84%E -3.44%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.19%E -1.47%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 10:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -5.84%E -3.44%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -7.21%E -3.46%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-04 05:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.84%E -3.44%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.54%E -4.17%K -8.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-04 05:45
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.39%E -3.78%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.08%E -1.90%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 10:15
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.39%E -3.78%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-04 05:05
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.39%E -3.78%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-04 03:59
Betway🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.39%E -3.78%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -8.54%E -4.17%K -8.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-04 05:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.95%E -4.14%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 05:49
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.95%E -4.14%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 05:49
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.95%E -4.14%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 05:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.95%E -4.14%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 05:50
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.95%E -4.14%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 05:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.95%E -4.14%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 05:50
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.50%E -4.49%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.08%E -1.90%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 22:29
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.50%E -4.49%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 10:00
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.50%E -4.49%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 10:11
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.50%E -4.49%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 10:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.50%E -4.49%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 10:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%EV -8.06%E -4.85%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -10.78%E -5.39%K -10.78%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-04 05:45
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.61%E -5.22%K -13.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.31%E -3.01%K -5.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 22:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.