The School of Odds
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Tokyo Yakult Swallows v Yokohama DeNA BayStars

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local)

Prediction 46.32%2.16fair odd
EV -0.407%
Edge -0.189%
Kelly -0.354%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.01%46.17%46.38%48.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.032.052.1551.81%49.15%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit)

Prediction 53.68%1.86fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.967%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.60%53.83%53.62%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.751.751.8359.17%57.13%56.98%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local): 46.32%; Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit): 53.68%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -0.407%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -0.407%E -0.189%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -9.28%E -5.49%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 12:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV -2.26%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%EV -5.53%E -3.14%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 08:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV -2.26%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%EV -5.53%E -3.14%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 08:05
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.80%EV -3.65%E -1.75%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.20%EV -1.77%E -0.967%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-03 08:50
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.39%EV -3.65%E -1.75%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.61%EV -3.38%E -1.88%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 08:52
William Hill🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -3.65%E -1.75%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -4.45%E -2.50%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 08:50
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -3.65%E -1.75%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.53%E -3.14%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 08:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -4.11%E -1.99%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 08:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -4.11%E -1.99%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 08:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -4.11%E -1.99%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 08:25
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -4.11%E -1.99%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 08:25
Unibet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -4.11%E -1.99%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 08:25
Bally Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -4.11%E -1.99%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 08:25
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.04%E -2.46%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.38%E -1.88%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 07:54
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.04%E -2.46%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.45%E -2.50%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 08:35
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.04%E -2.46%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.45%E -2.50%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 08:30
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.04%E -2.46%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.99%E -2.82%K -6.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 08:55
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.04%E -2.46%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.60%E -3.79%K -8.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 06:45
FanDuel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.50%E -2.70%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.45%E -2.50%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 07:56
ReBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.36%E -3.68%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.99%E -2.82%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 08:05
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.36%E -3.68%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.99%E -2.82%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 06:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.36%E -3.68%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.99%E -2.82%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 07:56
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.36%E -3.68%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.99%E -2.82%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 08:48
MyBookie.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -7.36%E -3.68%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -5.53%E -3.14%K -7.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 08:00
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.36%E -3.68%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.14%E -4.13%K -9.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 08:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.36%E -3.68%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.14%E -4.13%K -9.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 08:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.36%E -3.68%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.14%E -4.13%K -9.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 08:35
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.36%E -3.68%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.14%E -4.13%K -9.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 06:50
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.36%E -3.68%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.14%E -4.13%K -9.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 06:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.36%E -3.68%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.67%E -4.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 08:45
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.67%E -4.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.06%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 07:40
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -9.67%E -4.96%K -10.18%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -6.60%E -3.79%K -8.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 07:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.85%EV -10.13%E -5.22%K -10.78%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.15%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 08:50
BetUS🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -10.60%E -5.49%K -11.40%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -2.84%E -1.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 08:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.