The School of Odds
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Tokyo Yakult Swallows v Yokohama DeNA BayStars

Kickoff: 2026-09-17 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local)

Prediction 39.37%2.54fair odd
EV +2.37%
Edge +0.912%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%39.43%38.93%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.382.402.6046.51%42.10%41.75%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit)

Prediction 60.63%1.65fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -2.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%60.57%61.07%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.561.571.6268.97%64.14%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local): 39.37%; Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit): 60.63%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +2.37%E +0.912%K +1.48%G +0.035%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -9.06%E -6.04%K -18.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-17 08:45
Pinnacle🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV +0.401%E +0.157%K +0.259%G +0.001%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -5.42%E -3.48%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-17 08:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -1.17%E -0.468%K -0.777%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -4.21%E -2.66%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-17 08:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -1.17%E -0.468%K -0.777%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -4.21%E -2.66%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-17 08:55
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -1.57%E -0.627%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.82%E -3.07%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-17 08:55
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -1.57%E -0.627%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -10.27%E -6.94%K -21.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-17 08:50
BetUS🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.52%EV -1.96%E -0.788%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.48%EV -5.42%E -3.48%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-17 08:55
FanDuel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -2.35%E -0.950%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -6.63%E -4.31%K -12.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-17 08:55
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.26%EV -3.14%E -1.28%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.74%EV -3.60%E -2.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-17 08:50
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -3.54%E -1.44%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.24%E -4.73%K -13.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 08:40
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.50%E -2.29%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.21%E -2.66%K -7.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-17 08:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.50%E -2.29%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.42%E -3.48%K -9.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-17 08:50
ReBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.50%E -2.29%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.63%E -4.31%K -12.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-17 08:55
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.50%E -2.29%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.24%E -4.73%K -13.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 08:55
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.50%E -2.29%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.24%E -4.73%K -13.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 08:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.50%E -2.29%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -9.06%E -6.04%K -18.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-17 08:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -5.90%E -2.47%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -5.42%E -3.48%K -9.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 08:53
Coolbet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -6.69%E -2.82%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -3.60%E -2.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-17 08:50
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -7.47%E -3.18%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.24%E -4.73%K -13.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-17 08:50
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -9.44%E -4.11%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -1.78%E -1.10%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 08:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.44%E -4.11%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.00%E -1.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 08:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.44%E -4.11%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.00%E -1.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 08:35
Bally Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.44%E -4.11%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.00%E -1.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 08:35
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.44%E -4.11%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.00%E -1.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 08:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.44%E -4.11%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.00%E -1.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 08:35
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.44%E -4.11%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.00%E -1.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 08:36
Caesars🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -11.41%E -5.07%K -9.13%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -1.78%E -1.10%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 14:35
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -11.41%E -5.07%K -9.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -4.82%E -3.07%K -8.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-16 14:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -11.41%E -5.07%K -9.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -4.82%E -3.07%K -8.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-16 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -11.41%E -5.07%K -9.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -4.82%E -3.07%K -8.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-16 14:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.22%EV -13.38%E -6.08%K -11.15%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 59.78%EV -10.27%E -6.94%K -21.40%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-17 08:51
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.28%EV -15.35%E -7.14%K -13.35%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 59.72%EV -12.09%E -8.34%K -26.87%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-17 08:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.