The School of Odds
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Tokyo Yakult Swallows v Yokohama DeNA BayStars

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 09:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local)

Prediction 40.25%2.48fair odd
EV -0.574%
Edge -0.232%
Kelly -0.391%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.05%40.58%40.16%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.322.302.4746.51%43.19%43.48%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit)

Prediction 59.75%1.67fair odd
EV -0.223%
Edge -0.134%
Kelly -0.333%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%59.42%59.84%60.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.591.601.6766.67%62.93%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local): 40.25%; Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit): 59.75%. For Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.674. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.670, with an expected value of -0.223%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -0.574%E -0.232%K -0.391%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-14 08:29
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -1.38%E -0.563%K -0.951%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -5.00%E -3.15%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-14 08:44
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.38%E -0.563%K -0.951%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 08:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -2.18%E -0.899%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.15%EV -3.81%E -2.37%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-14 08:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -2.18%E -0.899%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.15%EV -3.81%E -2.37%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-14 08:29
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.39%E -1.41%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 08:44
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.39%E -1.41%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 08:50
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.39%E -1.41%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 08:49
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -3.39%E -1.41%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 08:39
BetUS🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -5.00%E -2.12%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 08:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.40%E -2.30%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 08:44
MyBookie.ag🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.40%E -2.30%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 08:45
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.40%E -2.30%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.80%E -4.36%K -12.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 08:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -5.40%E -2.30%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -9.19%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-14 08:34
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -6.21%E -2.67%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -1.42%E -0.859%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-14 08:34
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 08:54
Bally Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 08:53
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 08:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 08:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 08:54
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 08:54
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 08:33
ReBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.80%E -4.36%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 08:44
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.80%E -4.36%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 08:44
Coolbet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -8.62%E -3.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -2.02%E -1.23%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 08:34
Caesars🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.54%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -0.223%E -0.134%K -0.333%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 14:14
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.54%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -1.42%E -0.859%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-13 23:59
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.54%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -3.81%E -2.37%K -6.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 14:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.54%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -3.81%E -2.37%K -6.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.54%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -3.81%E -2.37%K -6.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 14:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.86%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.54%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.14%EV -9.19%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-14 08:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.87%EV -12.65%E -5.83%K -10.81%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.13%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 08:44
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -13.46%E -6.26%K -11.70%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -3.81%E -2.37%K -6.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-13 23:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.